Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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779 FXUS63 KEAX 061701 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS 1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, possible this morning through portions of eastern KS and western MO. - Potential for strong storms with heavy rainfall Friday night Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 This morning: As of 07Z, seeing mid-level clouds develop from northwestern MO, northwestward into NE. This area is tracking to the southeast. This looks to be in response to isentropic ascent noted at 310K. Short-range, high-resolution models are in good agreement developing some showers across eastern KS and western MO from the pre-dawn hours through mid day, when the ascent shifts southeast of the area and weakens. Forecast soundings show some elevated instability with this activity so would not be surprised if there some lighting activity as well. For now, have only gone with slight chance PoPs as confidence in coverage is somewhat low. Rest of Thursday - Friday: Aside from the potential for showers in our southwestern zones Thursday morning, the weather looks quiet through the period of time. Surface high pressure will track through the region resulting in cool dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s Thursday. That high will shift to the southeast tomorrow and allow for southerly flow to return, advecting higher dewpoints north into the area. By Friday evening, dewpoints should be able to climb back into the lower 60s. That increased moisture will portend to the potential for storms and heavy rain later. Friday Night - Saturday Morning: Strong moisture transport through a significant depth of the atmosphere will lead to precipitable water values pushing 2". This is at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year and may be in the top 2.5% of the CFSR climatology for the 3-week period centered on 06Z Saturday. As was the case last night, instability will be the limiting factor. However, MUCAPE values have increased and with strong northwesterly flow, we should see high enough 0-6KM shear values that some strong to potential severe storms look possible. It continues to look like convection will develop upstream in NE that will organize into a convective system that tracks into the area during the overnight hours. With the ample moisture in the area, these storms could produce heavy rain and flash flooding. Fortunately, being in northwest flow, the potential MCS should be progressive, which will limit the flooding potential. Saturday - Sunday: A cold front will settle to our south late Saturday, in the wake of the potential MCS earlier in the day. That boundary may act as the focus for renewed convection Saturday night into Sunday. The most likely area for this is southern KS into southern MO and adjacent areas of OK and AR. But there will be some potential for this activity in the southern half of the forecast so chance PoPs look reasonable at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Weak surface ridging with relatively dry air over the region is expected to keep VFR conditions in place. Winds will become light and variable towards sunset and then pick up after sunrise Friday from the south and southwest. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Wolters