731
FXUS64 KEPZ 201235
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
635 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 634 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Thursday will be the coolest day of the period as plenty of clouds
and some rain showers will be overhead. Remnants of Tropical Storm
Alberto will help keep moisture locked in over the area leading to
rain chances areawide the next couple days. Rain chances persist
over the weekend as well with gradual warming of temperatures. Our
next triple digit high temperatures could be seen as early as
Sunday as high pressure migrates to the area. Hot temperatures
will persist early to mid week next week with monsoonal rain and
thunderstorms expected each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Remnants of TS Alberto will continue to inch closer to the area
today keeping moisture locked in place. A tightened pressure
gradient will keep breezy winds almost areawide today and into
tonight. The wind advisory will continue for the NM Bootheel and
locations bordering AZ which will persist through the early
morning hours Friday. Rain chances continue yet again this
afternoon but are NOT expecting a repeat of yesterday. Instead,
we`ll see cooler temperatures with cloudy skies and more of a
stratiform rain for much of the area. CAPE values aren`t very
impressive with values of around 200-600 J/kg but bulk shear
values are plentiful west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) with
values of 30-40kts. DCAPEs will be around 1000 J/kg east of the
RGV and higher values of 1500-1600 J/kg will be found west of the
valley. Stronger storms out east could still put out a decent
outflow but better chances of stronger gusts from outflows will be
seen out west. If storms do form out west, stronger storms have
the potential for gusts to reach 40-50MPH near outflows.
However, much of the rain activity should stay east of the RGV
and area mountains.

Winds begin to relax heading into Friday leaving breezy conditions
over the area. Sustained wind speeds will be about 15-25MPH that
afternoon. Even worse dynamics will be seen Friday as shear is
virtually little to none and CAPE values stay pitiful at 100-500
J/kg. Expect areawide precipitation chances on Friday where
stratiform rains will be seen. Skies remain cloudy into Friday as
well preventing much of the convection. Mid level high pressure
migrates over the Borderland by Saturday which will help suppress
storms but recycled moisture trapped underneath high pressure will
be enough to continue rain chances Saturday and Sunday. The focus
of showers being in the area mountains and in general west of the
RGV.

High pressure stays parked over the area Monday through mid-week
keeping rain chances for the area each afternoon. This will act
somewhat monsoonal as daytime heating will get showers and
t-storms going that afternoon but shuts off in the evening due to
loss of heating. In addition, this high pressure will return
triple digits to the lowlands as early as Sunday lasting through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Low clouds are beginning to infiltrate the area this morning.
Expect increasing coverage of clouds as we progress through the
day today. Showers expected this afternoon generally east of the
Rio Grande and will spread westward through the evening and
overnight hours. Any stronger storms that do occur could create
gusty and erratic outflow winds of around 25-35KT for KELP and
KLRU but if storms fire west of the Rio Grande, expect the
strongest gusts to reach 30-40KT. Terminals should generally stay
VFR but could go MVFR due to shower activity. Breezy winds can be
expected for all TAF sites, especially KDMN. SE winds could reach
25G35KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

After a good push of moisture yesterday, min RH values will stay
above critical thresholds today through the weekend. In addition,
rain chances remain for much of the area today through at least
Sunday. Breezy to windy southeast winds can be expected today
with somewhat breezy conditions on Friday. East to southeast winds
become light over the weekend keeping fire danger relatively low. Winds
remain light Monday through Wednesday with monsoonal rain chances
continuing each day.

Temperatures will gradually increase each day starting tomorrow
where triple digits return as early as Sunday for the desert
lowlands. Critical min RH values are expected to return to the
lowlands by Monday but light winds during this time should keep
fire danger low. Ventilation rates will be generally good to
excellent each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  76  93  76 /  30  40  40  20
Sierra Blanca            78  66  86  65 /  60  60  40  10
Las Cruces               89  71  90  71 /  30  50  50  30
Alamogordo               88  68  89  66 /  30  40  50  20
Cloudcroft               63  51  64  49 /  60  70  70  20
Truth or Consequences    89  71  85  70 /  20  60  70  30
Silver City              84  63  82  66 /  20  60  70  50
Deming                   91  69  89  69 /  20  60  60  40
Lordsburg                92  69  90  72 /  20  40  60  50
West El Paso Metro       87  73  91  74 /  30  40  40  20
Dell City                81  68  88  65 /  60  70  50  10
Fort Hancock             86  69  93  68 /  50  50  40  10
Loma Linda               78  66  84  66 /  40  50  50  10
Fabens                   88  71  93  71 /  40  50  40  20
Santa Teresa             87  70  90  70 /  30  50  50  30
White Sands HQ           86  74  88  75 /  40  50  50  30
Jornada Range            87  66  88  67 /  30  60  60  30
Hatch                    90  68  90  69 /  30  60  60  30
Columbus                 91  71  90  73 /  30  50  60  40
Orogrande                84  70  87  69 /  40  40  50  20
Mayhill                  68  55  73  53 /  60  70  80  20
Mescalero                75  55  74  52 /  40  70  70  20
Timberon                 70  51  72  51 /  60  60  70  20
Winston                  80  56  77  58 /  10  70  80  40
Hillsboro                85  65  83  67 /  30  70  80  40
Spaceport                87  64  85  65 /  30  60  60  30
Lake Roberts             85  59  82  62 /  20  70  80  40
Hurley                   87  63  83  64 /  20  50  70  50
Cliff                    95  63  91  65 /  10  30  60  50
Mule Creek               90  66  87  70 /  20  20  50  50
Faywood                  85  64  83  66 /  20  60  70  40
Animas                   93  69  91  72 /  20  30  60  60
Hachita                  91  67  90  70 /  20  50  60  50
Antelope Wells           92  67  91  70 /  20  40  70  60
Cloverdale               89  66  87  70 /  10  20  70  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for NMZ404>406.

     Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for
     NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher