Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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417 FXUS64 KEPZ 152001 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 201 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Hot and Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday with temperatures in the lower to mid 100s for the lowlands and upper 80s to lower 90s for the higher terrain. Moisture returns to the area Thursday with storm chances daily into the weekend. This will bring cooler air into the area and drop most places closer to normal for mid June. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The shortwave trough over the area last night has pushed to the east, bringing back drier air into the area with a western to southwest wind. NBM 75th percentiles were used for temperatures today and through Monday as we have been on the end of our model guidance lately. Ridging will build into the area Sunday through Monday which will keep temperatures in the lower valley to near or over 105, leading to an extension of the Heat Advisory through Monday evening for El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley in TX. A long wave trough will start to deepen into the SW on Tuesday, which will be the beginning of a major pattern shift mid week. This troughing will combine with Gulf moisture and a weak tropical wave on Wednesday to bring moisture back into the area. Expect a surge of dewpoints over 50F to move into the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Storms are possible over the eastern NM and far east Hudspeth county on Wednesday. This moisture push will be the end of our current heat wave, as temperatures look to move back down to more normal for this time of year. This added moisture will also bring storm chances daily for the region going into the weekend. The higher terrain has the highest chances, but outflows may bring some chances to the lowlands each evening. These storm chance are going to be tied to how much tropical moisture makes it into W TX and S NM, as there are some models that push the moisture into Mexico and not this far north Thursday and Friday. By the weekend the confidence in storms increases as moisture is pulled in from the south either way. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds will remain light out of the SW-W for most of the airfields. Winds will pick up slightly tomorrow out of the west, but say below 20kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 There will be some near-critical to critical fire weather conditions over the Gila region today through mid week. The main concern will be the low RH values in the single digits combined with extremely dry fuels. The limiting factor will be the winds as they will remain light through mid week. These lower winds will be what keeps any headlines from being issued. As winds pick up mid week, moisture returns and raises the RH into the 20-30 percent range. Thunderstorms and lightning may be a concern form Thursday one, but dry lightning will be less of a concern with the low level moisture in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 106 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 100 68 100 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 70 104 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 102 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 70 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 65 102 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 100 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 65 104 66 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 67 106 67 107 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 68 97 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 69 105 70 105 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 102 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 66 102 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 65 104 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 57 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 59 93 55 90 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 68 99 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 101 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 93 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 62 96 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 59 101 58 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 95 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 96 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 100 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 100 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 100 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...01-Barham