Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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775 FXUS64 KEPZ 160543 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1143 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday with lesser coverage going into Tuesday. Dry conditions will then prevail for much of the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue to be near to about 5 degrees above normal through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper pattern through the first part of the forecast period will be fairly persistent with ridge to the east and trough to the west. The difference between today-Tue and Wed-Fri will be the surface winds turn from S/SE to W/SW pushing the moisture out by midweek. Currently have some showers and a couple thunderstorms across northern areas but expect a little development far west by late afternoon. Looks like areas south and east of KDMN have too much of a subsidence inversion to get anything going. For Monday, upper low gets a little closer and this cap weakens some, especially west of the RGV so we will see some storm activity push eastward, but still think it will be hard to get more than 20-30 percent coverage. Areas east of the RGV going into the evening hours will see some isolated storms, but think that warm layer aloft will limit coverage. Temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler out west with better cloud coverage, areas to the east will continue to warm up to about 5-7 degrees above normal. Upper low lifts out of the Great Basin on Tue, but one last disturbance will interact with lingering moisture north and east. Still not a great setup, so coverage remains mainly 20-30 percent, slightly higher in the Sacramento Mountains. Westerly winds kicking in behind this system will help to warm western areas back above average. West to southwest winds kick in areawide by Wed and continue through at least Fri. May get a little push of the dryline into far eastern areas Friday, but confidence not too high and just have some low Pops in the Sacs for now. Temperatures will remain warm with the lowlands in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some differences in the timing of the next trough lifting out between models, but the means of the EC and GFS ensembles seem to be in decent agreement which isn`t as warm as the operational EC and not as cool as the operational GFS. This compromise looks reasonable with trough not moving very fast which makes sense given the low is cutoff from the upper jet. Either way, looks dry for the weekend and with dew points falling into the 30s, should have some nice fall temperatures for overnight lows. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Fairly quiet conditions tonight with a few outflow boundaries sloshing around. There is some sign of redevelopment of showers KDMN and west tonight. High resolution models have been capturing this activity tonight but models have largely backed off on scattered showers occurring there tonight with most recent data. KDMN and KTCS may need future amendments to capture showery activity. Otherwise, light winds AOB 10KT generally out of the east expected tonight becoming southerly and low end breezy (12G22KT) during the afternoon. Another round of t-storms expected during the afternoon with much of the focus west of the Rio Grande, but storm activity may shift east of the Rio Grande later in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Low level moisture will be around for another day or two with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with the best chances northern zones. Temperatures through the period will remain near to above normal with west to southwest winds getting occasionally breezy Wednesday through Friday. Expect RH`s to fall into the teens by Thursday and remain that way into the weekend. Vent rates will be good to excellent through the next 5 days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 94 70 94 / 10 10 30 10 Sierra Blanca 62 90 63 88 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 64 91 65 90 / 10 20 30 10 Alamogordo 62 89 63 89 / 20 20 30 30 Cloudcroft 46 69 47 66 / 20 30 30 40 Truth or Consequences 62 88 65 87 / 20 20 20 10 Silver City 62 81 63 79 / 30 40 30 10 Deming 63 88 64 90 / 20 30 30 10 Lordsburg 64 82 63 86 / 30 40 30 10 West El Paso Metro 68 92 70 91 / 10 10 30 10 Dell City 60 93 62 93 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 63 95 64 94 / 10 10 20 20 Loma Linda 64 87 65 85 / 10 10 20 20 Fabens 64 94 65 93 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Teresa 66 91 67 89 / 10 20 30 10 White Sands HQ 65 91 66 89 / 10 10 30 20 Jornada Range 61 91 64 88 / 20 20 30 20 Hatch 63 93 64 90 / 20 20 30 20 Columbus 66 88 67 90 / 20 30 30 10 Orogrande 66 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 20 Mayhill 51 82 52 78 / 20 30 20 40 Mescalero 50 84 51 77 / 20 30 30 40 Timberon 49 80 50 75 / 20 20 20 40 Winston 51 80 53 80 / 20 40 20 20 Hillsboro 58 85 63 86 / 20 40 30 20 Spaceport 58 88 62 87 / 20 20 30 20 Lake Roberts 50 81 51 77 / 30 60 30 20 Hurley 58 84 59 83 / 20 40 30 10 Cliff 57 83 57 83 / 30 50 30 10 Mule Creek 53 81 53 78 / 30 40 30 10 Faywood 59 85 60 82 / 20 40 30 10 Animas 66 84 65 87 / 30 40 20 10 Hachita 63 88 64 86 / 20 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 62 84 63 87 / 20 30 20 10 Cloverdale 59 79 60 81 / 20 30 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher