575
FXUS64 KEPZ 150525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1125 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

There will be an increase in moisture across the area over the
next couple of days with a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will be west and north Sunday and
areawide Monday. For Tuesday through Friday, much drier air
returns with temperatures remaining above average and breezy
afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Models and ensemble means all support main upper synoptic pattern
of a mean ridge over the Great Basin region and a mean ridge near
the Mississippi River Valley. This places the Borderland in
generally a southwest flow pattern. The lower/mid level flow early
on though, looks to be tapping some remnant moisture from Ileana
which will move up into the region over the next couple of days.

For tonight, almost all the moisture to work with is far east, so
just expecting isolated storms in this area during the evening.
Overnight lows look close to last night. Going into Sunday, start
to get a better SW flow at H50 and some low level convergence that
could be the trigger for some storms starting out west and then
spreading toward the RGV and northern zones. Models not showing
much of an upper trigger, and forecast soundings south and east
from around DMN indicating a decent upper subsidence inversion
which could limit activity more than the CAMs are showing. Only
going mainly low chance out west and mountains with isolated
coverage as you head east over the lowlands. Expect this inversion
and loss of daytime heating to kill off most storms by around 03Z.

Going into Monday, fairly deep upper low for September moves into
the Great Basin and helps to start cooling temps aloft. This
should allow for better coverage of storms across CWA into Monday
night. Shear will be there, but instability still not great, but
wouldn`t be surprised to get a few stronger storms, especially
west. High temperatures will be a little cooler with increased
cloud cover and moisture but still above average.

Surface winds start to turn west to southwest Tuesday with just a
few lingering storms possible far east. Otherwise, this will keep
temperatures warm with main trough remaining over AZ at least
through Friday. With the west winds in place for a few days, think
the NBM temps may be a couple degrees too cool and raised them a
bit. Overnight lows should cool off nicely though as dew points
drop into the 30s and with clear skies, most areas will see 50s
with some lower to mid 60s around KELP.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions expeccted at TAF sites through the 18Z. Afterwards,
Isolated TSRA may impact KTCS along with nearby mountains east and
west. TSRA is less likely at KDMN, KLRU, KELP with VFR conditions
expected to continue through the valid period. clouds mostly clear
with lingering FEW150 til 18Z. After 18Z SCT080-100 BKN200. Winds
will remain southerly from 6 to 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

There will be a couple days with increased moisture across the
area. Isolated to scattered storms are expected Sunday north and
west and areawide Monday. Starting Tuesday, winds will be picking
up each afternoon out of the west to southwest and RH`s will be
falling into the teens, but as of right now, ERC`s will be high
enough to limit the fire danger. All though this time temperatures
will be near to above average. Vent rates will be good to very
good the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  72  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            90  65  89  65 /  20  20   0   0
Las Cruces               95  65  94  66 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo               93  64  93  66 /  10  10  20  20
Cloudcroft               71  48  69  47 /  20  20  30  20
Truth or Consequences    91  63  91  62 /   0   0  20  20
Silver City              87  62  85  57 /  10  10  50  30
Deming                   94  63  94  63 /  10  10  20  20
Lordsburg                91  62  89  62 /  10  10  40  20
West El Paso Metro       95  71  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City                96  64  94  65 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             96  65  95  68 /  20  20  10   0
Loma Linda               89  63  88  64 /  20  20  10   0
Fabens                   96  68  96  67 /  20  20   0  10
Santa Teresa             94  68  93  68 /  10   0  10  20
White Sands HQ           93  68  93  69 /  10   0  10  10
Jornada Range            93  61  93  65 /  10   0  20  20
Hatch                    95  64  94  63 /  10  10  20  20
Columbus                 93  63  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
Orogrande                92  65  92  66 /  20  10  10  10
Mayhill                  83  53  82  51 /  20  20  20  20
Mescalero                83  51  81  53 /  20  10  30  20
Timberon                 81  50  79  50 /  20  20  20  20
Winston                  85  52  81  51 /  10  10  50  20
Hillsboro                92  59  89  59 /  10  10  30  20
Spaceport                93  59  92  61 /  10   0  20  20
Lake Roberts             85  42  82  50 /  10  10  60  30
Hurley                   89  59  87  57 /  10  10  30  20
Cliff                    94  49  88  53 /  10  10  50  30
Mule Creek               88  45  83  51 /  10  10  50  30
Faywood                  89  59  87  59 /  10  10  30  20
Animas                   91  65  90  64 /  10  10  40  20
Hachita                  91  61  90  63 /  10  10  20  20
Antelope Wells           90  63  90  62 /  10  10  20  20
Cloverdale               86  59  85  59 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen