Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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774 FXUS64 KEPZ 312003 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Generally dry and hot conditions will continue into next week. Highs over the weekend will be in the 90s to near 100 for the lowlands, but come the middle of next week, the hottest days of the year are likely starting Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Models at least through midweek in good agreement with deterministic and ensemble means. Tonight will see mostly clear skies with similar low temperatures to last night. Dryline will push toward the Rio Grande by morning, however. Early impact in the forecast could be a few storms popping over the Sacs Sat afternoon as that dryline takes some time to retreat east. Some good instability in the moist side of the boundary, so a low end severe storm isn`t out of the question in eastern Otero county. High temperatures tomorrow will approach 100 around ELP and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, with mid to upper 90s for the remainder of the lowlands. A stronger westerly flow sets up for Sun/Mon which will keep moisture east of the area and surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. The weak wave that brings this increased winds will drop highs a degree or two for Sunday compared to Saturday. Little change for Monday, but highs will warm back toward the highs of Saturday which means a few triple figures return for the lowest elevations. Starting Tuesday, an upper low sets up over Northern Baja which then helps a fairly amplified ridge to setup over the Borderland. Hottest days of the year expected come Wednesday and Thursday. H85 temps on both the EC/GFS are around 34C-36C with the ensemble means not much different. This would translate to highs 100-108 for the lowlands. NBM temps only 102/104 Wed/Thu for KELP and these look low, so raised up a degree or two which may still not be enough. One thing that may help keep highs from getting to 108 would be overnight lows will still be falling into the lower to mid 70s and light winds under ridge may prevent full mixing. There is also agreement that there will be some moisture pushing back to the west. Moisture still looks fairly shallow with trajectories not coming off the Gulf of Mexico, but right out of central Mexico. With the extreme heat, could still see some isolated thunderstorms forming over the mountains and pushing onto the lowlands. By Friday, GFS is lifting low into the Four Corners region while the EC lifts it north, but keeps it out in the CA area. EC seems more reasonable given the strength of the ridge. The main impact from these differences will be how hot Friday will be. Still looks like most lowland areas will reach at least 100-105. Again, went above NBM guidance, but may still be not hot enough if that ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Dryline will push into far eastern areas and with the possibility of FEW-SCT030-040, mainly along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Hot and generally dry conditions through the next 5 days. A couple of storms are possible over the Sacramento Mts Sat afternoon as some moisture briefly pushes in overnight and lingers until mid afternoon before pushing east. Winds will be on the increase for Sunday and Monday with speeds of 15-20 mph expected along with high temperatures over the lowlands around 100 and RH`s of 3-8%. RFTI`s will generally be 4 with some 5`s thrown in around the windiest areas. The hottest days of the year will arrive Wed as a strong upper ridge builds in and highs will reach around 105 for the lowest elevations, but most lowland areas will be right around 100 degrees. These temperatures are expected to continue into the end of the week with some isolated storms possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 93 66 94 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 61 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 96 60 95 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 73 50 73 / 0 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 62 96 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 57 88 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 97 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 95 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 96 60 98 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 60 101 60 100 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 61 90 61 90 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 63 100 63 99 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 97 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 97 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 62 98 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 95 62 94 / 0 10 0 0 Mayhill 52 84 54 86 / 0 20 10 10 Mescalero 48 83 48 84 / 0 10 10 0 Timberon 48 82 48 82 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 51 87 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 60 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 94 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 88 37 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 92 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 94 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 91 45 87 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 95 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 59 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 96 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 58 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz