Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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985 FXUS64 KEWX 311127 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 627 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Points * Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms today and Saturday * Large (possibly very large greater than >2 inch) hail and damaging winds the main threats * A tornado or two is possible * Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible A cluster currently over West Central Texas will move southeast over the Hill Country across northern portions of the I-35 corridor to US 77 overnight into early morning. Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and strong damaging winds are possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 is in effect through 7 AM CDT. Locally heavy rains can also be expected. For today, the cluster will leave a surface boundary somewhere across the area. The dryline will remain over western Texas. In addition, upslope flow is expected over the Serranias del Burro west of the Rio Grande. These items along with heating will provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms. However, models do not agree on timing or location. There are no mid level features to provide forcing. As a result, will trend to the NBM POPs with the highest POPs across eastern areas. Forecast soundings indicate a continued potential for strong to severe storms with large to very large hail and strong damaging wind gusts the main threats. SPC has a level 2 of 5 risk of severe storms. Locally heavy rains can also be expected. WPC has a level 1 to 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rains. There should be a lull in showers and thunderstorms tonight due to lack of forcing after sunset. A rather humid, unstable airmass persists on Saturday allowing for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms with heating and possibly residual surface boundaries. There remains a potential of strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected today through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Low to medium rain/storm chances look to persist into Saturday night pending another weak disturbance embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft and local outflow/mesoscale features. Confidence as seen the last few days remains very low and dependent on storm activity from the previous day and if the atmosphere is able to recover into a more unstable environment. Any storms that are able to develop may again have the ability to become strong to severe and produce some locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances begin to lessen from Sunday into early next week as the upper level ridge over Mexico starts to strengthen and slowly nudge northward with time. This looks to shift the storm track of those weak embedded disturbances in the flow slightly more north and focus most of the convection during these days from the central plains and into portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth CWA. I will keep a very slim area of low pops across our northeastern most counties both Sunday and Monday if any activity and/or outflow is able to slim out of the Dallas-Fort Worth region. The upper level ridge continues to advance northward into the Desert Southwest and transitions towards more of an Omega Block pattern as we move into mid to late week. While the rain chances look to stay quite low through this stretch, this does open up more of a northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge where we may have to monitor for any disturbance/outflow from the central plains. Otherwise, the heat will intensify through next week as the daytime highs are to climb back into the mid to upper 90s for many locations and in excess of 100 degrees for areas near the Rio Grande. When factoring in those elevated dew points, the heat indices are to climb into the 104 to 112 degree range and may result in the return of some Heat Advisories across portions of the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Have introduced TEMPOs -SHRA at KSAT/KSSF and maintained TSRA at KAUS through 15Z. Otherwise, MVFR will lift to VFR by midday, then return overnight. E to SE winds prevail, breezy at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 73 90 75 / 50 20 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 73 90 75 / 50 30 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 74 94 76 / 40 20 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 86 71 87 73 / 50 20 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 79 102 79 / 20 10 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 72 88 74 / 60 20 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 96 77 / 20 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 72 93 75 / 40 20 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 75 89 76 / 60 30 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 75 94 77 / 40 20 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 95 77 95 78 / 30 20 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...04