Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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463 FXUS63 KFGF 241914 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Upper trough that brought last night`s rain continues to push east across MN, splitting into a closed low over IA and a more northern branch over the arrowhead. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to amplify over the Rockies, and will push into the Plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Between the ridge and the southward sinking IA low the pattern becomes rather blocky and doesn`t change much through the rest of the work week. Temperatures warming back to up well above late September averages will be the primary outcome, with highs again topping 80 degrees in several locations by Wednesday. Upper level riding will continue into Thursday. Breezy conditions are anticipated as the pressure gradient tightens and a 30 to 40 knot 850 mb jet propagates through the FA. With relative humidity values between 30 and 40 percent, fire weather is worth monitoring, but not a concern as of right now. Beyond Thursday, ridging slowly breaks down as the rex block pattern over the central and eastern US wanes. An approaching trough late Sunday into Monday will finally drop temperatures back to more seasonal values, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A few showers associated with the trough passage are forecasted Monday into Tuesday. POPs currently are under 20 percent, which given the uncertainty of the placement and intensity of the axis of forcing, is not surprising. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mostly VFR conditions although some MVFR cumulus developed over KBJI just as the 18Z TAFs were going out. Think they will hang around for a few hours before scattering out and going VFR like the rest of the TAF sites. Light west to northwest winds around 8 to 11 kts will continue through sunset, then become light and variable after 00Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR/Rafferty AVIATION...JR