Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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423 FXUS63 KFGF 111441 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 941 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon east of the Red River Valley with a marginal chance for severe storms. - More rain chances this weekend into next week with a 30% chance for more than 1" over a 3 day period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Showers have cleared the area entirely and some stratocumulus has developed along the backside of the main surface low. Impacts through the day will continue to be very limited with the only impact being gusty winds in the 20s this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Showers have moved out except in the far east where some sprinkles will remain through 8am. Watching to see how dewpoints behave today and if we will will need to lower them to better capture min RH through so far no indication to stray from forecast. Skies clearing behind the line of showers with winds expected to pick up by 9am with the gustiest conditions in northeast North Dakota where wind gusts up to 35 mph could be seen. Remainder of the forecast is on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...Synopsis... Showers currently moving east across northwest Minnesota this morning along a cold front with the attendant low northwest of Brandon Manitoba. As the low continues east amid westerly 500mb flow we begin to dry out with mid level ridging building in through the day. Steep near sfc lapse rates remain today, helping to maximize momentum transfer and create breezy conditions today as we remain well mixed. RH as low as the mid 30s with sustained winds in the low 20s gusting over 30mph in northeast North Dakota will create good burning conditions. Unlikely to approach near critical conditions with the limited RH potential but gusty winds may still create difficult conditions at times. ...Wednesday severe... Beyond today ridging continues to shift east with aid from another low amplitude trough and attendant cold front Wednesday afternoon. High based thunderstorms (~2000m) are expected to form along and ahead of this front. Primary forcing will be in northwest Minnesota in the afternoon with only a 70% chance for SBCAPE to exceed 1500 J/KG in our area. Bulk shear of 50+ kts (largely aided by strong 700-500mb flow) will support organized convection with wind up to 60 mph and hail to 1 inch, though early runs of higher res CAMs covering this period generally show the greatest threat to be to our south and east. A slower mid level trough could bring the threat further into our area but the trend has been for a more progressive wave over the past 24 hours. With the core of the ridge overhead Wednesday expect the warmest day of the year for most thus far across the region with highs widely reaching into the 80s with a few areas in the valley seeing enhanced mixing from downslope westerly winds off the escarpment possibly helping a few areas tap the 90 mark. At least it will be a dry heat with Tds in the 50s. Cooling off back into the 70s for the Thursday/Friday period with westerly flow aloft keeping us in a warm and dry continental airmass. ...Weekend rain chances... Surprisingly good agreement between global ensembles later in the week that long wave ridging will yield to a shortwave passing to our south amid southwest flow bringing warm air advection and deformation type rain to the upper midwest late week with a 40% chance for > 0.25". A second more potent pacific northwest trough then propagates east thorugh the weekend arriving in the Northern Plains/ Canadian Prairies early next week with better overall synoptic support through ensembles diverge by the weekend on timing and track limiting confidence past the initial late week wave. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Besides some clearing showers that may affect BJI through 8am LT VFR through the period. Could see some scattered shower early Wednesday AM though very unclear where or if these form. Gusty west winds today with 20kts gusting around 30kts for all but BJI where the trees will limit gusts through the afternoon. Also noting the likelihood of a SW low level jet Wednesday AM that may create LLWS upwards of 30kts beginning sometime after midnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux/TT DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT