135
FXUS63 KFGF 240311
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Starting to see more saturation between the bases of the clouds
and the ground, resulting in more reports of accumulation.
Adjusted POPs to reflect this change. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

High-based showers continue to move across the area behind a
trough. The accumulations with these showers continue to be
paltry, with occasional sites reading a few hundredths of an
inch. After these showers progress east, things should start to
clear out. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Upper trough digging into the Dakotas this afternoon will
continue into MN tonight, eventually amplifying over the upper
midwest tomorrow. The passage of the surface trough axis this
afternoon and evening will bring a few rain showers, with radar
returns already over eastern and central ND. MU CAPE is less
than 250 J/kg so even any thunder is unlikely, and there is no
shear to speak of. The only reports have been a few hundredths
of an inch of rain, so impacts are very minimal as the trough
swings through this evening and skies begin to clear out later
tonight.

Upper ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward into
the Plains by mid-weak, eventually setting up a blocking pattern
with high heights across the Plains into the Great Lakes, jet
over Canada, and cut off low well to our south. This pattern
will keep it dry and temperatures will return to well above late
September averages. Could push above the 80 mark again in some
spots, but will depend on clouds and exactly how much the ridge
builds over the central CONUS. Next chance for precipitation
will be when the blocking pattern breaks down and the next upper
trough starts to move into the Dakotas on Monday. However,
fairly high uncertainty in the details as the ridge breaks down
will hold off on any messaging for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Winds will shift to westerly overnight, and eventually
northwesterly as the morning continues Tuesday. Winds will be on
the lighter side, around 10 knots or less, and ceilings will
remain in VFR territory, with the exception of a period around
BJI this morning (12 - 15z). Winds will drop to light and
variable into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...AH