209
FXUS63 KFGF 292048
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues through the next week. Showers and
  thunderstorms are expected Thursday and again on Saturday.

- A few strong storms are possible Sunday as another system
  traverses the region during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

There is relatively high confidence regarding an active weather
pattern unfolding over the next week. Rain chances increase on
Thursday as an upper low ushers a trough across the Northern Plains.
This trough is an extension of a larger upper low, which will serve
as the source multiple thunderstorm axes through the next week. This
first trough will have enough moisture to give us a 70 percent
chance of 0.50 inch of rain across portions of the region,
especially along the I-94 corridor in southeastern North Dakota and
west central Minnesota. Look for mainly embedded thunderstorms with
this first system.

Heading into Friday and Saturday, a weak shortwave rotates around
the H5 low, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the
area. Minimal impact is expected from this shortwave, with less than
a 20 percent chance for 0.10 inch of rain for the Devils Lake Basin.

Sunday brings a stronger trough and associated theta-e gradient
boundary. Slightly better forcing and moisture will be available
with this wave, thus we could see a few strong storms develop during
the afternoon and evening. Regarding SBCAPE, there is a 70 percent
chance for greater than 1000 J/Kg and a 50 percent chance for 2000
J/Kg or more, especially in the far southern Red River Valley.
Surface to 3km shear could range from 20 to 30 knots, with deep
layer shear up to 40 knots. Although it`s still several days out,
there is enough ensemble agreement to mention a low chance for
severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

The active pattern continues into next week, with thunderstorm
chances entering the forecast again as we head into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail for most areas, with only occasional MVFR
ceilings at KBJI. Look for VFR ceilings through the remainder of
the evening and into the overnight period. Southerly winds
increase this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots as
an upper low approaches the region.

During the overnight hours, LLWS becomes possible as the
boundary layer becomes inverted. Wind gusts at the surface will
diminish; however, winds aloft remain elevated and slowly
increase to around 40 knots out of the south in association with
a weakening low level jet.

For Thursday morning, precipitation chances increase gradually
from west to east, with KDVL seeing rain chances as early as
14Z. Wind gusts should pick back up at the surface, with 25 to
30 knots possible through at least the early afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch