Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
349 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Challenging situation continues with lower level dry air
continuing to win out. Decent radar returns have persisted across
the western and southern forecast area for several hours now but
obs, webcams, and public reports all have indicated very little
reaching the ground. Finally starting to see some reductions in
visibility in both observations and on webcams across the Devils
Lake basin and James River Valley. However, did cut down snow
amounts (and adjusted headlines accordingly) with nothing really
accumulating yet up to this point. Based on upstream obs and
current radar, expecting the far western forecast area (Canadian
border down through the Devils Lake basin and into the Valley City
area) to see the greatest impacts so have kept the Winter Storm
Warning going for these areas.

Conditions look to gradually improve from west to east Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The next round of wintry weather arrives on Saturday night.
Currently expecting that it will start as snow before
transitioning to rain during the day on Sunday. Some freezing rain
is possible Sunday morning with warmer 850 mb temperatures near
the freezing point. There will be yet another round of wintry
weather Sunday night into Monday night. This will also likely
contain a wintry mix of precipitation with temperatures near
freezing through the period.

There is potential for another system to move in later in the work
week but there is still disagreement between model guidance on
timing and location. The GFS, NAM, and CMC all agree though that
this will be a lower impact event.

Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures are expected though
this period. Warmer temperatures are expected in the early part of
the work week with cooler temperatures expected later in the work


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

VFR conditions continue at all sites as of issuance time but are
expected to deteriorate from west to east as an area of snow
passes through the region. IFR ceilings and visibility will be
possible in the heaviest snowfall (possibly even brief LIFR) and
tried to time this out in the TAFs. Southeast winds could gust to
30 to 40 mph at KDVL, KGFK, and KFAR later this afternoon and into
tonight (weaker at KTVF and KBJI) before weakening by Saturday


ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ007-008-

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006-014-015-

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ027-030-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001>003-



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