073
FXUS65 KFGZ 110541
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1041 PM MST Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build and strengthen over Arizona,
leading to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of
the week. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish
out the week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated showers have ended near the New Mexico border
this evening with sky cover clearing overnight. Tranquil weather
conditions are expected for tonight with little to no wind and
near average temperatures. High pressure begins to develop over
much of the West tomorrow, resulting in increasing temperatures.
Afternoon breezes will remain on the lighter side, 10-20 mph, for
tomorrow along with persistent dry conditions. The heat will only
get worse for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure strengthens.
The current Excessive Heat Warning for our lower valleys/canyons
for Wednesday and Thursday looks good with no changes needed.
Besides for a few tweaks to the low temperatures tonight, the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /510 PM MST/...Weak low pressure over New Mexico
continues to keep northeast Arizona partly to mostly cloudy this
afternoon. Modest low level moisture (dewpoints near 40F) will
bring a few isolated light showers this afternoon during peak
heating, mainly near the Chuska Mountains. Elsewhere, near normal
temperatures and mostly sunny skies prevail.

Tuesday and Wednesday - high pressure centered over northern
Mexico will strengthen and extend northward into Arizona.
Afternoon high temperatures will increase accordingly, reaching
near 10 degrees above climatological averages Tuesday then 10-15
degrees above for Wednesday. The Excessive Heat Warning for areas
below 4000 feet beginning Wednesday looks good. A closed low off
the coast of northern Baja will begin to shift eastward by
Wednesday with an increase in wind speeds in western Arizona with
gusts 25-30 mph.

Thursday and Friday - there is good model agreement that the
closed low off the coast will move northeastward toward western
Arizona Thursday, then cross the state Thursday night and Friday.
Gradients out ahead of the low increase and will lead to more
widespread gusty southwest winds Thursday, becoming more westerly
and shifting to mainly eastern Arizona for Friday. Preliminary
speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph are forecast. This will
bring some elevated fire weather concerns as humidity remains low.
The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through
Thursday. As the low moves across the area, it will bring some
mainly mid level moisture with it, leading to a chance of high-
based showers Thursday evening. By Friday, the best chance
(20-40%) for high-based showers and thunderstorms shifts to areas
mainly northeast of the Mogollon Rim. There will be a threat of
dry lightning and some new fire starts, again mainly northeast AZ.

Saturday and Sunday - the closed low moves well east of Arizona as
a larger trough takes shape over the northwest US. Dry weather
returns with breezy southwest winds. Temperatures a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period. Winds generally 10 kts or
less, varying in direction.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...VFR conditions
are expected to persist. Daytime winds from the W-SW, 10-20 kts
with gusts 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry with warming
temperatures expected through Wednesday. Afternoon RH dropping to the
single digits to low teens. Light and variable winds Tuesday mainly
less than 10 mph, increasing and becoming southwest 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Elevated fire weather conditions
expected for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon RHs will continue
falling into the low teens to single digits for most of northern
Arizona. Winds increase Thursday and Friday with afternoon gusts
20-35 mph. Lighter winds are expected Saturday but warm, dry weather
persists. Isolated showers and high based thunderstorms are possible
north of the Mogollon Rim Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff