038
FXUS65 KFGZ 092315
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 PM MST Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures today and Monday will trend
back upward by Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Expect mainly dry
conditions, aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms over
eastern Arizona this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave within the flow around the high to our
west is bringing ample mid and high level clouds for the
afternoon. Nothing like some much appreciated heat relief. Still
expecting very minimal precip input from this wave, though some
isolated showers/storms are possible for the Chuskas/Four
Corners/White Mountains.

Going into the first part of this work week, high pressure is
expected to restrengthen and build into the state. This is going
to allow temperatures to start moderating once again with pretty
light and variable winds, even for the afternoons. While this is
happening, a low will become parked off the Baja coast, which will
have implications on our forecast later.

By Wednesday and into the end of this work week, the high to our
east continues to strengthen while the low to our west starts to
shift and strengthen as well. This will ramp up our southerly
winds with increasing confidence in 30+ mph wind gusts Thursday
into Friday. That wind, combined with afternoon RHs in the low
teens to single digits, will result in elevated fire weather
concerns that we will be monitoring. By Friday that low should be
moving inland, pushing moisture into the mid and upper levels.
This could result in high based thunderstorms that would produce
minimal precipitation.

Right now expecting dry, hot weather to return next weekend with
zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/00Z through Tuesday 11/00Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. ISO SHRA/TS mainly east of a
0V7-KSOW line. S-SW winds 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable
after 03Z. Winds increase to 10-20 kts after 17Z/Tue.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/00Z through Thursday 13/00Z...VFR conditions
with W-SW winds 5-15 kts. Localized gusts 20-25 kts during the
afternoons. Light and variable winds expected each overnight
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Temperatures will gradually
warm, with mostly dry conditions. There is a slight chance for
showers/storms along our AZ/NM border Monday afternoon. Minimum RH
values will range between 5-20%, with more widespread single digits
on Tuesday. Look for west-southwest afternoon winds 5-15 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will peak on Wednesday,
becoming cooler through the end of the week. Look for generally
southwest to west winds each afternoon 15-25 mph, gusting near 30-35
mph. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain likely for the end
of the week due to strong winds and 5-15% minimum RH values.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff