Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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671 FXUS65 KFGZ 142019 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 119 PM MST Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A brief warming trend will take place between today and tomorrow, along with isolated showers/thunderstorms near NE AZ this afternoon/evening. A dry, long-wave trough will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds Sunday through the beginning of next week. Warm and calmer conditions look to return by mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION...A quick moving disturbance brought isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, primarily in central/northern Apache/Navajo Counties. Hi- res guidance continues to indicate convective activity towards the Four Corners through 5 PM MST this evening. A brief warm- up will take place on Saturday, as a weak ridge settles over the region, prior to a long-wave trough pushing down from the Pacific Northwest. This low-pressure system will bring gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and mostly dry conditions starting Sunday. Wind gusts are shaping up to be 30-40 mph Sunday and Monday afternoon, but peak wind gusts will be on Monday. Currently, Sunday looks to hold widespread, single-digit relative humidity values that slightly climb to low-mid teens on Monday. With the drier pattern and strong winds, near-critical to critical fire weather concerns are possible both days. No products have been issued at this time, but stayed tuned for updates. Wednesday Onward...The previously mentioned trough will gradually weaken through the end of the week and a subtropical high will begin to build up over our area. As a result, temperatures will increase through the end of the week and winds will become lighter. Look for daytime highs 2-10 degree above normal Thursday and Friday. It looks like enough moisture will funnel in across eastern Arizona toward the end of next week, bringing our precipitation chances between 10-20% for our AZ/NM border. There is still time to hash out all those details, so check back later. && .AVIATION...Friday 14/18Z through Saturday 15/18Z...SCT -TSRA/SHRA northeast of a KFLG-KGCN line, but especially N of KRQE. Convective activity will end by 22Z-24Z. Otherwise, VFR through the period. Sfc winds VRB5-15kts through 19Z-20Z, then W-NW5-15kts, then VRB again AFT 03Z Saturday. OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/18Z through Monday 17/18Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Hot and dry. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph on Saturday, increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 30 to 35 mph on Sunday. Pockets of near-critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday afternoon over the central/northwestern zones. Some weak northerly flow may persist Saturday morning over southern Apache County. Monday through Wednesday...Dry, temperatures cooling to around or just under seasonal normals. Windy for Monday and Tuesday, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions possible Monday afternoon. Winds decrease by Wednesday, becoming west through southwest at 10 && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff