Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
231 PM MST Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weak weather disturbances will move across
the western states into next week, bringing generally dry
conditions and breezy southwest winds during the afternoons. High
temperatures will be near seasonal averages for most locations.
Limited moisture will bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to far northern Arizona today and Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...A broad trough of low pressure remains situated
across much of the western U.S. today. An embedded shortwave is
approaching Arizona from the west this afternoon and will move
across the state tonight through Sunday. This feature will provide
just enough instability for a few high-based mountain showers or
even a thunderstorm to develop mainly from the San Francisco Peaks
northward to the Utah border. Otherwise, temperatures will fall near
to slightly above average with typical afternoon breezes. Any
showers that do develop will produce mostly gusty winds with very
little, if any, precipitation.

The trough will deepen into a closed low over the southwest U.S.
early next week. The weather will remain mostly dry, with a low
chance of additional high-based showers or storms. Southerly winds
will increase, especially on Monday which could lead to areas of
critical fire weather. Temperatures will drop a couple of degrees
Tuesday when the low moves through Arizona.

Fair weather will return for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
builds back in over the southwest. Looking further than this, long
range models continue to diverge in solution towards the end of
next week. Both models now indicate a low pressure system moving
in from the Pacific but differ in the their solutions for the
track and timing of this feature. Will continue to look for some
better agreement.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Gradually clearing skies through the evening with
southwest winds 10-20kts becoming light and variable after 02z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditons can be expected into Monday
for most areas. Increasing mid level moisture and instability will
continue a slight chance for high based showers or thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon to areas north of a line from Supai to Window Rock.
Elsewhere fair weather to persist. A period of near critical fire
weather can be expected Monday afternoon as southwest winds increase
amidst low humidities.

.Tuesday through Wednesday...Near critical fire weather conditions
can be expected again Tuesday afternoon as low level winds shift to
become more southerly. A slight chance of high based showers or
thunderstorms is forecast for western portions of Coconino County
and the Four Corners Region. Fair weather returns Wednesday.






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