974
FXUS65 KFGZ 160913
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
213 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and
Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weather pattern over the coming days will
feature a deepening trough of low pressure across the Pacific
Northwest leading to a dry and breezy pattern for Arizona.
Southwest flow will continue to strengthen under increasing
pressure gradients today and Monday. Expect wind gusts today of
25-35 mph, increasing to 30-40 mph on Monday afternoon. These
winds will combine with low afternoon RH to generate critical fire
weather for much of north-central and northwestern Arizona today,
spreading to northeastern Arizona for Monday. Red Flag Warnings
are in effect for both days. Lowering heights associated with the
trough passage will lead to a decreasing trend in temperatures
through Tuesday.

While the parent trough weakens and heads northeast, a reinforcing
shortwave will keep a weak trough over the southwest through
midweek. This will keep breezy daytime winds in the forecast,
though wind speeds will be less than today and Monday.

From Thursday onward, high pressure begins to build back into the
region from the east. Rising heights will lead to increasing
temperatures for the latter half of the week into next weekend. In
addition, GEFS and ENS ensemble data continue to show a modest
increase in precipitable water from Thursday onward, leading to
rain/storm chances returning and spreading east to west across
the forecast area. Model consensus is in agreement on the signal
of some moisture returning, but there remain differences in timing
with the ENS showing a slower signal. Any forecast precipitation
amounts look light (<0.25") at this point and thunderstorms will
bring the potential for new lightning started wildfires. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/06Z through Monday 17/06Z...VFR. Light and
variable winds, then increasing SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts
25-35 kts after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...VFR. S-SW winds
15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts between 18Z-02Z with light and
variable winds overnight. Lighter winds expected on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Warm, very dry, and windy. A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for much of northern Arizona on both
afternoons. Daytime southwest winds 15-25, with gusts from 30-40
mph. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and breezy conditions with seasonable
temperatures. Daytime winds south through southwest 10-20 mph with
gusts around 25 mph each day. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>109-112-115-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff