Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
941 AM MST Fri Mar 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect clearing skies through this afternoon with dry
weather through the weekend. Breezy daytime southwest winds to
persist this weekend. Another round of unsettled weather is
expected starting Monday, with well below normal temperatures and
a chance of light showers through to Wednesday.


Radar and satellite trends this morning show decreasing clouds
and precip returns as last night system moves away. Grids and text
products were updated to show this, the rest of the short term
forecast is on track.


.PREV DISCUSSION /318 AM MST/...As expected, areas of rain have
been focused along the western Mogollon Rim and northwestward to
the Kaibab Plateau overnight. This will remain the case through
mid morning as a trough and associated cold front cross the
region. Snow levels will continue to gradually fall this morning,
but will remain above 8,000 feet. Precipitation will diminish by
late morning as the trough quickly moves through the region.
Expect partly cloudy skies and dry conditions this afternoon as
southwest flow re- establishes itself over the region.

Another significant trough will develop southward and strengthen
along the West Coast Saturday and Sunday. The result of this will
be dry conditions through the weekend, with temperatures cooling
several degrees Saturday and Sunday. Gusty southwest winds will
redevelop Saturday afternoon and persist through Sunday.

Longer range model forecasts agree that a closed low will bring a
period of unsettled weather to northern Arizona from Monday
through Wednesday of next week. The current forecast calls for
below normal temperatures, increased cloud cover, and at least
isolated rain and snow showers each day. While there is a general
agreement concerning the overall weather pattern, high spread
exists with regards to the amount, timing and location of these
showers. Please stay tuned as the details of early next week`s
forecast are refined over the coming days. The low is expected to
weaken and eject eastward on Thursday with moderating temperatures
and dry weather thereafter.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package... VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours across northern Arizona. Gusty southwest winds
will continue until around 02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A trough of low pressure will push east of Arizona
today with showers ending form west to east this morning. Breezy to
windy conditions will continue into this evening.  Dry weather and
breezy to windy southwest winds are expected on Saturday.

.Sunday through Tuesday...A developing low over the Great Basin
and Northern Rockies will bring breezy to windy southwest winds on
Sunday, along with a cooling trend. Chances for showers will
increase on Monday and Tuesday with much colder conditions.






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