Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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563 FXUS64 KFWD 110956 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 456 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: A thunderstorm complex over the Texas South Plains will arrive at our western border around 9 AM on its current path. Convection may weaken thereafter, but additional development is likely farther east this afternoon as the upper low responsible for the precipitation arrives. The ongoing forecast is on track, with the best rain chances still expected across the western zones today, and southern zones on Wednesday. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ A weak front will remain somewhat stationary south of the region for the next few days, keeping temperatures slightly below normal in the near-term. Afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected Tuesday with a light east to northeast breeze. Wednesday will be a touch warmer as the front becomes diffuse and southeast winds return. The main weather feature of note is an upper low currently spiraling over the Texas Panhandle. This system will move southeast from the Panhandle into western portions of North Texas during the day Tuesday, generating a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region. The best rain chances will be along and west of I-35 in the vicinity of the upper low, though slight chance POPs will extend across the eastern counties where more isolated convection may occur. Storms should peak in the afternoon during maximum instability, a few of which may be strong with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain. Weak flow aloft and a lack of appreciable deep layer shear will keep the severe threat in check, though an isolated storm or two may over-achieve and produce quarter sized hail and a damaging wind gust. Slow storm movement may also lead to localized flooding. Activity will wane Tuesday evening with the loss of instability. The low will drop south through Central Texas Tuesday night and Southeast Texas on Wednesday as a mid level ridge re-strengthens over the southern Rockies, shifting most of the precipitation south of the forecast area on Wednesday. However, chance POPs will remain in place for areas generally south of I-20 where diurnally driven convection may still occur on the northern flank of the upper low. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 215 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ /Wednesday Night through Monday/ Mid level ridging will build into the Southern Plains through the latter half of the week leading to a generally tranquil period with temperatures warming back into the mid 90s each afternoon. Dewpoints should mix into the low/mid 60s Thursday through Saturday which will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Otherwise, a slow moving upper low off the California coast will spread across the Four Corners region and into the Central Plains over the weekend. While this will put a dent in the building ridge, the stronger forcing will remain well to our north with little chances for additional precipitation. As mid level ridging builds over the southeast U.S. early next week, modest tropical easterly flow will send a slug of 2.5"+ PWs westward across the Gulf tied to an inverted mid level trough. This feature will likely spread into southeast Texas late Monday and could result in an uptick of scattered tropical showers and thunderstorms that may make it into parts of our east and southeast counties. We`ll continue to monitor this feature over the coming days. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings are expected this morning, followed by thunderstorm chances this afternoon as an upper low moves in from the northwest. Confidence is high enough to continue with VCTS for the afternoon, but due to the scattered/disorganized nature of the convection, will not include any TEMPO groups at this time. Thunderstorms will dissipate shortly after 12/00Z. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 71 89 71 93 / 40 20 5 0 0 Waco 87 71 87 70 90 / 50 30 20 0 0 Paris 86 66 88 65 91 / 10 5 0 0 0 Denton 84 68 88 68 93 / 40 20 5 0 0 McKinney 84 68 88 68 92 / 30 10 5 0 0 Dallas 85 71 89 71 93 / 40 20 5 0 0 Terrell 85 69 88 67 91 / 30 10 5 0 0 Corsicana 87 71 88 70 92 / 40 20 10 0 0 Temple 88 71 88 70 92 / 40 30 20 0 0 Mineral Wells 83 69 88 69 93 / 60 30 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$