817
FXUS64 KFWD 021944
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
Update:

Quick update to substantially raise PoPs across the northern 1/3
of the CWA based on recent radar trends. Cluster of thunderstorms
off to the northwest has become much better organized and has a
substantial pool of strong instability to work with downstream.
These storms should organize into a small complex and move across
North Texas through the evening hours. This update will also
expand the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to include the Metroplex and
another row of counties to the south. We`ll have to assess
further the impacts this round of storms will have on overnight
storm chances and that will be done a little later this evening.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

The period of active weather continues across North Texas with
thunderstorm chances increasing this afternoon and overnight.
Currently, an increasingly organized cluster of thunderstorms is
ongoing across parts of southwest Oklahoma with individual storms
moving off to the northeast. The entire cluster of storms is
drifting east-southeast with time and will likely spread into
parts of North Texas through the afternoon. This activity
developed along a well defined moisture axis early this morning
and has continued to strengthen along a differential heating
boundary through midday. As thicker low cloud cover has scattered
out across the region, strong surface heating and dewpoints in the
mid 70s yields around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and this will likely
increase further into the afternoon. While the parameter space is
becoming increasingly favorable, visible satellite imagery still
shows generally flat CU across North Texas at this time suggesting
that additional storm development is still a little ways off.
Minimal convective inhibition should allow this to occur rather
quickly though as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. For
the remainder of this afternoon, we`ve raised PoPs to around 40%
for most areas along and north of I-20. Convection should be
scattered, but semi-organized clusters could evolve with time
enhancing the potential for severe wind gusts in addition to a
severe hail threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
parts of North Texas to account for this threat.

This initial wave of convection should move east with time and
we`ll turn attention back to the west this evening. Model guidance
is in pretty good agreement with additional thunderstorm
development across West Texas and the Panhandle along the dryline
late this evening, however, we`ll have to see what impact this
current complex has on the instability off to our northwest. If it
wipes out much of the instability, then the likelihood of another
complex traveling over the same area late tonight would be
considerably lower than currently advertised in the model
guidance. Unfortunately, we`ll have to wait and see what kind of
late afternoon recovery we get before increasing confidence in
overnight thunderstorm activity. For now, we`ll maintain 40-60%
overnight PoPs generally along and north of I-20, but these could
go either significantly lower or higher depending on what happens
over the next several hours. If another complex does develop and
spread east with time, it would be accompanied by a damaging wind
threat along with a continued heavy rainfall threat.

For Monday, any early morning activity would be exiting the
region to the east with limited recovery for additional
thunderstorms until late afternoon. We`ll have PoPs at 20%
areawide late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast
update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain
representative of the period overall, with the most recent data
only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast.

The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the
return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few
locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index
values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there
continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms
through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a
couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday
morning where another complex could push through portions of
North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will
remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes
into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the
placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days.
As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar,
satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in
coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains
quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather
will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid-
to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs
in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see
heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday`s daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens
with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As
we`ve seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have
steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also
have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in
the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these
storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but
the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms
Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will
exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as
the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain
and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease
Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for
another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is
expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday-
Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While
a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations
may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at
this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a
weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring
low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow
aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential
for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vis have scattered out over the last hour
and VFR prevails across most of N TX at this hour. This will
continue through the afternoon with the main concern being
convective potential. We should see an increase in coverage of
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and will continue
with a VCTS for now with timing likely best in the 20-22Z
timeframe. Additional thunderstorms are expected overnight, but
this may become dependent upon the ongoing complex to our north
and west. We`ll continue to advertise TS overnight and monitor for
additional adjustments. Another round of at least MVFR cigs are
expected although model guidance is particularly aggressive on
IFR/LIFR. This seems unlikely based on convective forecast trends
and will forego showing cigs/vis that low at this time. If
overnight convection does not materialize, then the probability of lower
cigs/vis would increase.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  89  75  93  76 /  40  20  20   5  10
Waco                74  89  74  93  75 /  20  20  20   5   5
Paris               70  86  71  87  74 /  90  30  20  10  20
Denton              71  88  73  92  74 /  50  20  20   5  10
McKinney            71  87  73  90  75 /  50  20  20   5  20
Dallas              73  89  74  93  76 /  40  20  20   5  10
Terrell             71  88  73  91  75 /  50  20  20   5  10
Corsicana           74  89  76  92  77 /  30  20  20   5   5
Temple              74  90  75  93  75 /  20  20  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       71  91  73  94  74 /  40  20  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$