729
FXUS64 KFWD 020015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
715 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/

Convection associated with an MCV across North and East Texas has
spread east of the forecast area early this evening, with a
window of tranquil weather expected the rest of this evening and
tonight. A small percentage of high res guidance has advertised a
nocturnal thunderstorm complex evolving from convection across the
Trans Pecos, but based on the presentation and trajectory of
current activity there, that solution seems unlikely. We`ll carry
some very low PoPs across the west for early tomorrow morning
with the idea that our forecast area will probably be free of
convection at that time.

A pair of more robust disturbances transiting westerly mid-level
flow will offer a couple of opportunities for storms during the
second half of the weekend. The first of these shortwaves may
ignite storms within or just west of the forecast area tomorrow
afternoon as its ascent interacts with exceptional instability and
moderate shear. A second opportunity will exist overnight Sunday
into early Monday morning in the form of a convective complex
arriving from the northwest. One or possibly both of these rounds
of thunderstorms could impact the forecast area during the next 36
hours, and PoPs of 30-50% will be shown across most of the area
with very low confidence in timing/placement. Those with outdoor
interests will want to maintain awareness of the radar scope as
all thunderstorm activity during this time period could be strong
or severe with hail/wind threats. Flash flooding due to locally
heavy rainfall is also possible due to saturated soils and robust
rainfall rates.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

North and Central Texas will lie beneath the northern flank of a
mid level ridge (centered over Mexico) at the start of the period.
The resulting flow aloft will create a couple opportunities for
thunderstorms to start next week. The first of which will be late
Sunday as the ridge is somewhat compromised by a shortwave trough
passing through the Plains. An active afternoon and evening of
convection is expected from the Dakotas southward into the
Southern Plains, with North and Central Texas sitting on the
southern edge. It is likely that the dryline will provide a focus
for convective initiation over Northwest Texas Sunday afternoon,
with activity propagating east-southeast through our forecast area
Sunday evening. Storms will encounter a strengthening cap the
farther east they get, which should cause weakening as they move
through and east of the I-35 corridor. Until they weaken, a
damaging wind threat may exist primarily west of I-35.

A second shortwave will generate another round of storms Monday
afternoon and evening. The latest guidance places the higher
thunderstorm probabilities either along the Red River where the
stronger ascent will reside, or across Central Texas within an
axis of exceptionally high instability. Storms may end up being
isolated, but model soundings support supercellular structure
with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds with
any storm which may develop.

A slight pattern shift will occur on Tuesday as the ridge expands
north, bringing a return to northwest flow aloft. A deepening
upper trough across the Midwest and Ohio Valley will amplify the
pattern for the mid to late week period. It looks at this time
like the ridge will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, shutting off
our rain chances for a day or two while providing our warmest
weather of the week. The north to northwest flow will eventually
usher in another weak cold front, which will likely cross the Red
River on Thursday and stall somewhere across North or Central
Texas. This boundary and additional disturbances in the flow aloft
will bring more chances for rain and storms late next week into
the following weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Thunderstorm activity has shifted well east of the TAF sites as of
00z, with a quiet evening/overnight period expected for the
airports. There is a chance for some patchy fog to develop around
daybreak Sunday, and areas of MVFR stratus are also expected to
affect the TAF sites for at least a couple of hours during the
morning before improvement to VFR occurs by midday. Additional
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of North and
Central Texas during the daytime, with the highest chances in the
afternoon. Have included a brief VCTS mention at the end of the
valid TAF period although coverage/placement/timing of
thunderstorms remains highly uncertain at this time. Outside of
convective influences, a south/southeast wind of 10 kts or less
will prevail.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  89  74  90  75 /   0  40  40  20  20
Waco                72  88  74  90  74 /   5  40  20  20  20
Paris               68  87  71  86  72 /   0  30  30  40  20
Denton              70  89  72  90  73 /   0  40  40  20  20
McKinney            71  88  73  88  74 /   0  40  30  30  20
Dallas              72  90  74  90  74 /   0  40  30  20  20
Terrell             70  87  73  89  74 /   0  40  30  30  20
Corsicana           72  89  74  90  76 /   5  30  20  20  20
Temple              72  89  74  90  75 /   5  30  20  10  20
Mineral Wells       71  89  71  91  73 /   5  40  40  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$