047
FXUS64 KFWD 180029
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
729 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

North and Central Texas remains wedged between a trough to our
west and a strong ridge to our east. As is typical for this type
of pattern, abundant moisture will be in place tomorrow for
diurnally driven showers and storms along a northward surging sea-
breeze in East Texas. Partly cloudy skies will prevail through
the day with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
and although it`s on track to make landfall in Mexico, some
impacts will be felt across our region. Rain chances will
gradually creep up late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
especially across Central Texas. Additional details regarding the
mid-week forecast can be found in the long-term discussion below.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will be making its way inland along the
Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday night with its associated plume of
tropical moisture surging northward into North and Central Texas.
Notable warm/moist advection will result in increasing showers and
isolated storms beginning Tuesday night and continuing through
Thursday as the system slowly moves west/northwest over the
course of a couple of days.

Not much has changed regarding the expected precipitation totals
for our region, with the bulk of the precipitation and
significant rainfall totals still expected to remain to our south.
Average rainfall totals through Thursday will range from 1-3"
across Central Texas and near 1/2" or less across North Texas.
It`s worth noting, however, that some areas will receive no
measurable rainfall and others will receive more than the average
amounts mentioned above. The latter is especially true for
Central Texas where slow-moving and/or training showers and
thunderstorms may produce isolated rainfall totals between 3-5".
The most likely area for these higher rainfall totals will be
south of a line from Cisco to Palestine. While there is medium
confidence these higher-end rainfall totals will occur
somewhere across Central Texas, confidence in a precise
location(s) and frequency is quite low at this time. Hopefully,
this will come more into focus over the next couple of days.
Regardless, these higher end totals will certainly cause flood
impacts. While flooding will be less likely across North Texas,
PWATs are expected to reach 2-2.5" across various portions of the
forecast area on Wednesday. Therefore, any showers and storms that
develop in North and Central Texas collectively will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall. The NAM is currently
forecasting PWATs near 2.40" for portions of North Texas, which
would exceed our daily maximum PWAT (for June 19th) of 2.22". With
all of this in mind, ensure you keep a close eye on the forecast
for the latest information throughout the week.

The tropical disturbance will move further west on Thursday,
eventually bringing an end to our rain chances from east to west.
Rain-free weather is expected through the weekend, but hot
temperatures are expected with heat index values potentially
returning to the triple digits. Low rain chances look to return
early next week as we enter the final week of June.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The ongoing showers and isolated storms across East Texas will
continue to dissipate as they progress northward. A gradual
reduction in the cumulus field is also expected with the loss of
daytime heating.

Another surge of low clouds will make its way northward overnight,
reaching KACT around 04Z and all North Texas TAF sites closer to
06Z. MVFR is expected much of the morning with improvements
expected in the afternoon. Winds will remain southerly tomorrow
generally between 15-20 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  90  74  84  74 /   5   5   0  20  20
Waco                75  89  73  81  73 /   0  10  10  40  40
Paris               72  89  71  84  72 /  20  10   5  10  10
Denton              74  91  72  85  71 /   5   5   0  20  20
McKinney            74  90  72  84  73 /   5  10   0  20  20
Dallas              75  92  74  85  74 /   5  10   5  20  20
Terrell             73  89  72  83  73 /  10  10   5  20  20
Corsicana           75  90  74  82  75 /   5  10  10  30  30
Temple              75  89  73  79  72 /   5  10  10  50  40
Mineral Wells       75  89  73  83  72 /   5   5   0  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$