525
FXUS64 KFWD 200931
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
431 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread heat indices over 100F expected across the region
  this afternoon.

- Multiple opportunities for scattered showers and storms
  expected late Sunday through mid-week.

- A cold front will bring near or below normal temperatures
  through midweek followed by a slight warming trend towards the
  end of the week.


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 202 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/
/Today and Saturday/

Seasonally anomalous hot/humid conditions will intensify today as
the center of a strong upper-level ridge remains focused over the
region. With a warm, moist airmass bolstered by modest southerly
low-level winds, dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today. Intense diurnal heating (approaching daily temperature
records) coupled with this persistent elevated moisture (surface
dewpoints exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology) will yield
widespread triple digit heat index values this afternoon.
Additionally, these well above-normal dewpoints will continue to
help keep overnight temperatures high. How high? Following
yesterdays record high low, DFW will again challenge the records
for highest lows both today and tomorrow.

Todays forecast low: 78F vs record high low: 79F (2016)
Saturdays forecast low: 78F vs record high low: 78F (1925, 1980, 2017)

In line with recent trends in observations, the forecast lows for
both mornings employ a blend of the NBM 50th percentile and MOS
guidance, nudging lows slightly higher than the deterministic NBM.
By Saturday, the center of the prevailing ridge will begin to
shift southward over Central Texas as a southern stream upper
low/trough pushes towards the Four Corners region. This should be
sufficient to shave a couple of degrees off of temperatures on
Saturday with highs generally in the mid 90s. Unfortunately, with
dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s to lower 70s, heat index values
will still top out between 100-104F during the peak of the
afternoon on Saturdayjust below heat advisory criteria. Please
remember to take adequate precautions against the elevated
potential for heat illnesses over the next few days. This includes
(and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent
breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your
vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat illnesses.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday night Onward/

The main story of the long-term forecast is the onset of an
unsettled weather pattern expected Sunday into next week. As the
center of an upper level low moves into the central Great Plains,
a cold front will travel eastward/southward across the southern
Plains. For our area, rain chances will spread across our
northwestern counties on Sunday afternoon/evening as the front
provides some focus for convection. Coverage will remain fairly
isolated during this period as the greatest ascent stays north of
the area. The front should continue to move across the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing not only rain chances but also
cooler temperatures behind it. Highs on Monday will depend on the
location of the boundary. If the current forecast verifies, much
of the region will see highs in the upper 70s or 80s with the
exception of areas across the southeast (ahead of the boundary)
where highs may reach the lower 90s.

A second upper level disturbance is forecast to swing southward
toward the Southwest U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. With the support of
the lingering front, we should see additional scattered showers
and storms across our area during this period. The main hazard
with any activity during this period will be lightning and brief
heavy rain. However, average rainfall totals will likely remain
less than 1 inch. The good news is that the rain and/or clouds
will keep daytime highs in the 80s through mid-week. Rain chances
will come to an end Wednesday night with a slight warm up expected
towards the end of the week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 202 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

No significant aviation weather concerns through the current TAF
cycle as strong high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region. VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals
through the period with surface winds generally out of the south
at 5-10kt and occasional gusts to 15kts. Morning MVFR cigs should
once again remain well south of Waco.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  78  97  76  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                98  75  97  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               98  74  96  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              99  75  97  73  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            99  75  98  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              99  77  98  76  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             99  74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           99  75  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              99  73  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       99  73  96  71  92 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$