123
FXUS64 KFWD 140541
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and
rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing
into the mid 90s both today and Saturday. Thanks to decent mixing
out of surface dewpoints during peak heating, maximum heat index
values are largely expected to remain at or below the 100 degree
mark the next couple of afternoons. However, southeast winds will
be rather light at just 5-10 mph, and will do little to offer any
relief from the summer heat. Otherwise, some passing cirrus
spilling southward from convective activity well to our north
along the KS/OK border will be the extent of sky cover present
through the period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Long story short:

Expect a quiet weekend before an unsettled pattern brings on and off
rain chances next week.

Short story long:

A closed upper low currently off the coast of SoCal will de-amplify
into an open shortwave as it moves onshore and towards the Central
Plains this weekend. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in
the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep
South in response. The shortwave will slowly move across the
Continental Divide early this weekend, but North and Central Texas
will remain dry as better moisture and lift remain displaced to the
north. A warm weekend is expected with afternoon temperatures in
the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100-101.

Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find
themselves between a trough and a high place. We`ll continue to be
located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with
a longwave trough to our northwest. Moisture advection will
really increase beginning early in the week, ushering abundant
tropical moisture in the form of around 2" PWATs and 70s dewpoints
in to the region. While overall forcing will remain nebulous
without a direct focusing boundary/shortwave, diurnal heating will
allow for isolated-scattered showers and storms during the
afternoons on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across our east and
southeast zones. Isolated storm chances will expand region-wide in
the latter portions of this next week as the northern extent of a
tropical wave in the western GOM advances further inland. We`ll
continue to watch for more fine-scale details as they come in, but
threats of heavy rain and lightning will interrupt any outdoor
plans.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds of 5-10
kts. FEW/SCT cirrus will spill into North Texas associated with
dissipating convection far to the north, and this will be the
extent of sky cover present at the airports for the next 30 hours.
Patchy MVFR stratus is possible each of the next two mornings in
parts of Central Texas, but will remain well south and east of
the TAF sites.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  95  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  93  71  92  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  93  69  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            73  94  71  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  95  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  93  70  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  94  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  93  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$