886
FXUS64 KFWD 151932
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

Another hot day is in store across North and Central Texas with
high temperatures expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s.
Given the humidity, heat index values are going to run a few
degrees warmer than the actual temperature. Most locations should
stay below the triple digit mark with respect to heat index,
however, a 100 degree reading or two cannot be ruled out. Tonight,
expect temperatures in the 70s across much of the region with
winds out of the south/southeast.

Tomorrow`s forecast is similar to today with highs in the mid 90s
across the region. No precipitation is expected.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

After several days of quiet weather, an unsettled pattern is
expected throughout this upcoming week. A shortwave disturbance is
currently moving across the Southern Plains today and has shunted
the upper ridge into Dixie Alley. To our northwest, an upper level
longwave trough is moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. With the
ridge to our east and trough to our west, moisture advection will be
on the increase early this week in response to the south/southeast
low-level flow atop the region. Guidance continues to highlight a
weakness in the ridge, spanning from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Southern Plains over the first half of this upcoming week. This
weakness, coupled with the ample moisture and inherent instability,
will allow for isolated showers and storms across our east/southeast
zones both Monday and Tuesday. Lightning and heavy rain will be the
main hazards.

Over mid-late week, coverage of rain chances will be on the increase
as a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche moves over Mexico
and South Texas. While rain chances will be higher to our south,
isolated-scattered chances for showers and storms are expected
during this time as the northern extent of the inverted shortwave
trough will move across the region. Severe weather is not expected,
however heavy rain and lightning will interrupt outdoor plans.
Currently, forecast sounding storm motions of 30-40 kts will promote
progressive movement and preclude a higher-end flood threat. Current
most-likely 72 hour rainfall accumulations (Wed AM - Sat AM) show up
to 1-1.5" across Central Texas with lower amounts further north.

Thanks to those rain chances and cloudy skies, afternoon
temperatures will peak in the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. These
temperatures are up to around 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

One particular point of interest will be Wednesday. Over the last
three runs, the GFS has been consistent in the formation of a
surface low in the Gulf that will move onshore and track westward
across southern Central Texas during the day. If this solution were
to occur, rainfall totals would increase across Central Texas and
the ramp up the flooding threat. 15% of total ensemble guidance
members are showing the northern inverted trough, with the majority
of those solutions made up of GEFS and GEPS ensemble members. In
short: while there is still uncertainty in what exactly will happen
on Wednesday, we`ll need to keep a close eye in the coming days as
mid- and short-range models begin to cover it.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

VFR skies will continue through the next 30 hours across North
and Central Texas. Afternoon cumulus will dissipate this evening
leaving behind cirrus clouds through tomorrow. Winds will remain
out of the south/southeast, generally below 10 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
Waco                73  91  74  91  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Paris               73  93  74  90  72 /   0   0   0  20   5
Denton              73  94  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            73  93  74  91  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Dallas              76  94  76  92  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Terrell             72  93  74  90  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Corsicana           74  94  76  92  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Temple              72  93  74  92  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  93  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$