287
FXUS64 KFWD 182354
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
654 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

Isolated showers will remain possible over portions of the Brazos
Valley and eastern Central Texas for a couple more hours this
evening as southeasterly low/mid-level flow associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 continues to pump Gulf moisture over
the area. As the center of this system moves onshore south of the
Texas border, a high PWAT airmass will move overhead much of
South and Central Texas increasing rain chances later Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon.

Latest high-res guidance trends continue to push the higher
rainfall totals south of our forecast area. The greatest shower
and thunderstorm chances look to remain south of a Lampasas-
Temple-Hearne line where rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" are
expected. As you move further north toward the I-20 corridor,
shower and storm coverage will become more isolated with many
areas along/north of I-20 missing out on the rain completely. It
is important to note that very localized higher totals are
possible across Central Texas with any more robust cells or
training bands of rainfall due to a very anomalously moist
airmass.

Widespread cloud cover will bring a break from the heat with
afternoon highs in the low to mid-80s expected across much of the
region Wednesday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
Update:
Rain bands associated with PTC One will continue to move from
southeast to west across the state on Wednesday night as the
remnants of the tropical depression/storm transition further
inland into Mexico. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below
remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast. The NBM has continued a downward trend in the
coverage of precipitation after sunrise on Thursday with
convection contracting closer to the main circulation. This is
likely to keep many areas rain-free after sunrise on Thursday
apart from portions of Central Texas and areas near/west of US-281
in North Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South
Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered
showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the
I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight
hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central
Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which
will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20
corridor.

All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a
mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a
return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory
criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The
next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another
tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the
north, or both around the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Isolated showers will remain possible over portions of the Brazos
Valley for the next couple of hours, but should largely remain southeast
of KACT. MVFR cigs will redevelop across portions of Central Texas
late tonight into Wednesday morning, primarily impacting the KACT
terminal and remaining south and southwest of the D10 terminals.
However, there is a ~20% chance that MVFR cigs develop over the
Metroplex for a few hours near sunrise Wednesday morning. We will
continue to monitor this low potential through the night.

Drizzle/mist may develop out of this cloud deck over portions of
Central Texas Wednesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
will increase across Central Texas later Wednesday morning and
especially into Wednesday afternoon. We have introduced a VCSH
mention at KACT after 17Z Wednesday. Rain coverage will become
quite a bit more isolated as you move north toward the I-20
corridor, therefore we have opted to keep any precip mention out
of the D10 TAFs at the moment.

Otherwise expect southeasterly winds at 10-20 kts, occasionally
gusting to 25 kts, through this evening shifting more easterly by
Wednesday morning.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  87  76  92  75 /   5  10  20  10   0
Waco                74  82  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  20   5
Paris               71  85  73  91  71 /   5  10   5   5   0
Denton              73  88  73  91  72 /   5  10  10  10   0
McKinney            73  87  73  91  73 /   5  10  10   5   0
Dallas              74  87  75  93  75 /   5  20  20  10   0
Terrell             72  85  74  92  72 /  10  20  10   5   0
Corsicana           74  85  76  92  75 /  10  30  20   5   0
Temple              74  82  73  89  73 /  10  50  40  20  10
Mineral Wells       73  87  73  89  72 /   0  10  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$