065
FXUS64 KFWD 101039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No significant changes to the current forecast. A few showers have
developed over the last hour mainly north of I-20 and this trend
should continue through the morning. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop by early afternoon across parts of the region with
some potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Regional radar imagery and surface observations indicate a cold
front is sliding southward through North Texas at this hour and is
very near the I-20 corridor. Scattered thunderstorms along the Red
River continue to weaken at this time with renewed convection
occurring farther to the northwest. For the remainder of the
night, the front will continue to push southward while additional
thunderstorm chances will generally remain north of I-20 and
across parts of our far western counties. PoPs will be around 20%
for the rest of the night.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will be located south of I-20 but
will lose some of its forward momentum. This should become a focus
for renewed convection as the atmosphere destabilizes throughout
the day. While the convection allowing model guidance is really
all over the place with respect to timing and coverage, a general
consensus is that the frontal boundary should be the primary focus
for additional scattered thunderstorms. That being said, we`ll be
fairly liberal in area with PoPs across the region ranging from
20-50% and try to confine the highest rain chances where we think
the boundary should end up. A band of 40-50% PoPs will be located
south of the Metroplex and into some of our Central TX counties
during peak afternoon heating. Most of this activity will be
diurnally driven and should taper off in coverage pretty quickly
this evening. The threat for severe weather is low, however a few
storms could briefly pose a severe wind threat or hail threat.
Otherwise, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be
the main threats.

Monday night should be fairly quiet as afternoon heating wanes and
thunderstorm coverage diminishes. It`ll be a bit cooler as well
with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the north to lower 70s
in our central TX counties. While the frontal boundary will
become a little more diffuse on Tuesday, an upstream shortwave
will eject out of the Four Corners and into West Texas. Increasing
forcing for ascent and ample deep layer moisture should lead to
another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
particularly west of I-35 where a semi-organized cluster of storms
may develop within the modest instability. We`ll have our highest
PoPs confined to areas west of I-35 into the evening hours.
Increased cloud cover and rain chances will mean cooler afternoon
highs both Monday and Tuesday with temperatures topping out in the
mid/upper 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The storm chances mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for areas primarily west
of I-35, before tapering off as North & Central TX shifts into a
rain-free period following the departure of the upper level
shortwave.

Ridging will expand overhead and result in warming temperatures
and no meaningful rain chances midweek onward. Highs will climb
into the 80s for one more day Wednesday (a few degrees below
normal) before reaching the low/mid 90s each afternoon through the
workweek. The heat will continue into the weekend with slightly
higher moisture on Sunday likely resulting in heat indices near
or in excess of the triple digit mark for many areas. Isolated sea
breeze activity may also reach parts of the Brazos Valley over
the weekend, but coverage will remain low.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have developed just off to the northwest of the major
airports at this hour and these should continue to spread south
through D10 later this morning. In addition, there has been an
uptick in showers to the north which should continue as well.
We`ll continue with a VCTS by early afternoon into the evening
hours as there should be a fair coverage of thunderstorms during
peak heating. North-northeast flow will persist for much of the
day around 10 kt before becoming more easterly overnight.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  72  87  70  89 /  40  20  20  20  10
Waco                89  72  87  70  86 /  50  20  40  20  20
Paris               83  64  85  64  88 /  20   0   5   5   5
Denton              83  68  86  67  89 /  40  10  20  20  10
McKinney            83  67  87  67  88 /  30   5  20  10  10
Dallas              86  72  88  70  89 /  40  20  20  20  10
Terrell             84  69  87  67  88 /  40  20  10  10  10
Corsicana           89  72  88  70  88 /  40  20  20  10  10
Temple              91  72  89  70  87 /  40  20  40  20  20
Mineral Wells       84  70  85  68  88 /  40  20  40  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$