733
FXUS64 KFWD 180923
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
423 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

A low pressure system of tropical origin will make westward
progress from the Gulf of Mexico into southern portions of Texas
over the next 36 hours, steered by weak mid-level easterlies.
While the greatest effects of this system will remain well south
of the CWA, it will still offer some rain chances during the
midweek period, along with slightly cooler temperatures due to
attendant widespread cloud cover. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across our southeastern zones this
afternoon on the far outer periphery of this feature, and should
be quite similar in coverage to Monday afternoon`s convective
activity. Following an intrusion of morning stratus, partial
clearing during the afternoon will allow highs to climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Greater moisture content and a shield of light/moderate rainfall
will spread into the area by Wednesday morning, and
broken/overcast skies will hold highs in the low/mid 80s for most
locations. Rain amounts will be highest across our Central Texas
zones where isolated totals of 1-2" are possible. The greatest
rain totals and highest flooding threat will remain south of the
forecast area. Most of North Texas will see rainfall totals around
a quarter inch or less, with some of our northwestern zones
possibly remaining dry altogether. The greatest rain chances will
occur from Wednesday morning into the afternoon before this
activity shifts progressively farther to the west heading into
Wednesday night.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South
Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered
showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the
I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight
hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central
Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which
will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20
corridor.

All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a
mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a
return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory
criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The
next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another
tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the
north, or both around the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/06z TAFs/

MVFR stratus is expected to fill in fairly quickly during the next
few hours, resulting in several hours of low cigs at all TAF sites
through the morning. Eventual lifting to VFR is expected this
afternoon, but cigs near 4 kft are likely to continue through
much of the daytime. Breezy southeast winds of 15-20 kts and
higher gusts will also prevail today, before wind speeds lessen to
around 10 kts later this evening. Convective activity is largely
expected to remain southeast of the TAF sites today, and none
will be advertised in the TAFs at this time.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  74  87  75  90 /   5   5  30  20  10
Waco                90  74  84  74  87 /  10  10  60  40  20
Paris               89  72  84  73  90 /  10   5  20  10   5
Denton              92  72  87  72  89 /   5   5  30  20  10
McKinney            91  72  86  73  90 /   5   5  20  20   5
Dallas              92  74  87  75  91 /   5   5  30  20   5
Terrell             90  72  84  73  90 /  10   5  30  20   5
Corsicana           92  74  84  75  90 /  20  10  50  20   5
Temple              90  72  82  72  87 /  10  10  60  50  30
Mineral Wells       90  72  87  72  87 /   0   5  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$