617
FXUS64 KFWD 142312
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
612 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Late afternoon surface observations and satellite imagery show
another hot and dry day winding down across North and Central
Texas. With very little pattern change expected over the next 24
hours, another seasonably hot day is expected on Saturday with
highs in the mid 90s and heat indices within a few degrees of the
temperature. Aside from incorporating present observations, no
significant adjustments were needed with this evening`s update.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

A dominant upper ridge will keep quiet weather in place through
the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will climb
into the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow. Heat index values
will be just a few degrees higher than actual temperatures,
ranging from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees or so.
Unfortunately, light winds and mostly sunny skies will offer
little relief from the heat, so ensure you stay hydrated and take
frequent breaks if spending any time outdoors.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

A shortwave disturbance currently over the Four Corners will
continue to slowly move east over the next several days, eventually
traversing across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Forcing for
ascent will allow for the development of scattered showers and
storms to our north and west early Sunday morning. Our region
should remain dry as the better lift and moisture remains
displaced to the north, but the GFS continues to show potential
for precipitation to move into our northwestern counties. Have
refrained from including >10-15% PoPs as the GFS is more "the
exception, not the rule" and the ensembles are even less
optimistic. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this as we go into
the weekend.

As the shortwave moves across the Continental Divide, the upper
ridge mentioned in the short term discussion above will be shunted
eastward in response. By early this upcoming week, the large-scale
pattern will feature the ridge to our east and a longwave trough to
our west. Moisture advection will ramp up on the back side of the
ridge, sending 70s dewpoints and 1.5-2" PWATs across the region.
Models continue to depict a weakness in the ridge overhead through
midweek.

Isolated to scattered rain chances will continue to be possible
through the end of the week as the northern periphery of a GOM
tropical disturbance moves inland through South and Central Texas.
This disturbance will bring even richer moisture to our southern
zones late week. Best chances for rain and storms looks to remain
south of I-20 in Central Texas as the disturbance is offset to our
south. Forecast soundings show long, skinny CAPE profiles and around
2" PWATs which are indicative of very efficient rainfall producing
storms. Hence, heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats and
will impact outdoor plans. Rainfall accumulations Wednesday
through the end of the week are still uncertain in regards to
exact northward extent and exact amount, but highest rainfall
totals in our CWA are expected in Central Texas closer to the
disturbance.

High temperatures in the afternoons this upcoming week will be
slightly cooler than previous days, peaking in the lower 90s (and
even 80s on Thursday). However, the increased humidity will keep
peak heat indices within the mid 90s to around 100 degree range
most days.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue at all North and Central Texas
terminals through the 00z TAF period with east to southeast winds
of 5-10 kts. Any MVFR cigs that develop around 09-11Z on Saturday
will remain well south of the TAF sites.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  95  76  95  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  92  73  92  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  93  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              70  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  94  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  95  75  95  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  93  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  94  74  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  94  71  94  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       71  93  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$