705
FXUS64 KFWD 250714
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/
/Today and Sunday/

Mid level heights will slowly build today in response to a strong
northern stream shortwave trough dropping south into the
Intermountain West, which will then lift out across the Central
and Northern Plains tonight. This will result in increased
subsidence with a strengthening cap aloft outside of the Big
Country into the Red River Valley and points north. This will mean
a drier day overall with continued above normal temperatures and
tropical- like humidity across the entire area. Highs will be in
the lower 90s with dew point values in the 70s. This will put much
of Central Texas right around 105 degrees, which is borderline
Heat Advisory criteria and usually these are done when consecutive
days of excessive heat conditions are expected. A last minute
decision will be made regarding any heat highlights.

A few CAMs are showing that the capping inversion may be weak
enough for widely scattered, strong to severe discrete storms by
early evening across the far northwest and Red River counties.
This would be a very "conditional" risk wholly dependent on
heating and being grazed by better large-scale ascent to the
north. If a storm or two were to go up, high surface-based
instability and 50 kt westerly deep layer shear could result in a
brief 2-3 hour window during the early evening hours up across
that area of the CWA. Very steep mid level lapse rates will remain
confined west of here and combined with strengthening CINH east
toward I-35, intensity and life-span of any storms would be much
more short-lived than in previous days. We`ll continue to refine
these low (10%-25%) rain chances in forecasts as we move through
the morning hours into midday today. Otherwise, a breezy and warm
night tonight with stratus mainly impacting Central and East Texas
Sunday morning thanks to a strong, but more veered LLJ > 40 kts
overnight.

The shortwave trough lifting across the Plains toward the Great
Lakes and Mississippi River Valley on Sunday will help mid level
heights slowly fall across North Texas particularly. The main
problem for storm coverage and development would be the continued
cap around, as well as only a weak surface trough moving from the
west. For now, I`ll have an isolated, late day chances across
areas north of I-20. Again, another very "conditional" day and if
a storm can go up, then reaching strong to severe limits wouldn`t
be too hard to achieve. High temperatures will push the century
mark for a few areas and this would match up with a few records
achieved during the infamous heatwave of 1980. Something to
watch. However, the eastward progressing trough (or dryline) will
help to drop dew points much lower than seen the past week, so at
least heat indices and humidity would be more tolerable to an
extent. The main thing to keep in mind for the holiday weekend is
to stay hydrated, wear light weight and colored clothing, and take
frequent breaks from the outdoors when possible.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday and Beyond/

Much of the region will remain rain-free through the early
portions of next week as dry, subsident air remains positioned
over North and Central Texas behind a passing mid-level shortwave.
A weak cold front will sink south of the Red River by Sunday
evening bringing east-northeasterly winds to much of North Texas
through Monday. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid-90s
south of I-20 on Monday with highs in the upper 80s along the Red
River north of that frontal boundary. Rain chances could return as
early as Monday evening across portions of eastern North and
Central Texas on the nose of strengthening 925-850mb warm-air
advection. Additional daily chances for rain will return by the
middle of next week as a dryline sharpens over West Texas and a
series of disturbances round about the northern periphery of a
building mid-/upper ridge over Mexico. Although it is a bit early
to discuss severe weather impacts for the middle of next week,
repeated rounds of thunderstorms could increase the potential for
flash flooding concerns, especially over the areas that received
the bulk of the rainfall this past week. Otherwise, expect
afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s and warm, humid overnight
lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s all of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/
/06z TAFs/

Challenges will be deteriorating flight rules at all airports
(particularly the western D10...AFW, FTW, DFW, as well as ACT)
after 09z-11z this morning. BL cooling during this time will
result in cigs dropping into low MVFR BLO 020, then IFR with
patchy MVFR/BR Vsbys between 12z-15z.

D10 airports will be a slow improvement back to MVFR by midday,
with VFR thereafter. SE winds less than 10 kts will drop to 3-5
kts at sunrise, before increasing from the SSE 10 to 15 kts after
18z and continuing through Saturday evening with gusts to between
25-30 kts. Though isolated strong-severe TS are anticipated from
just NW of the D10 to the Red River, confidence and coverage
remain too low to introduce into the later TAF periods attm.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  99  73  93 /  10  20  20   0   5
Waco                92  75  94  73  93 /   0  10   5   0   5
Paris               88  73  91  69  89 /  10  30  20  10   5
Denton              92  75  97  69  91 /  20  20  20   0   0
McKinney            90  76  95  71  90 /  20  20  20   5   5
Dallas              93  76  99  74  94 /  10  20  20   0   5
Terrell             90  74  93  72  90 /   5  30  10   5   5
Corsicana           92  74  95  75  93 /   0  20  10   0   5
Temple              92  74  94  73  94 /   0  10   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  74  98  68  93 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$