Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
633 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

High clouds continue to spill over the upper ridge centered just
west of the area, otherwise the weather pattern remains fairly
quiet. The primary difference today is the increase in low level
winds. Wind speeds will increase into the 15 to 25 KT range during
the mid to late morning hours while veering to a more southerly
direction. Gusts may drop off after sunset, but winds will likely
remain in the 15-20 KT range through the evening and overnight
hours. A southerly low level jet around 35 KT will develop late
this evening, ushering in a swath of moisture at 925MB. This will
result in a stratus deck surging north out of Central Texas
overnight. The latest hi-res guidance indicates MVFR cigs arriving
in the Waco area 06-08Z and in the DFW Metroplex 08-10Z Friday,
with conditions improving around midday Friday.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/
The axis of an upper level ridge will work its way east from the
Rockies into the Plains over the next 24 hours. This should keep
skies mostly sunny today with only the occasional passing cirrus
to contend with. At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient
means that wind speeds will be on the increase today. Breezy
conditions across the western counties this morning will spread
east across the rest of the area by this afternoon. Velocities
will be southeast to south and generally in the 15 to 25 MPH

Conditions will remain breezy overnight, which will help keep low
temperatures mainly in the 55-60 degree range. A low level
moisture surge will bring widespread stratus and mostly cloudy
skies to the area prior to sunrise Friday. A few sprinkles are
possible as the low clouds move in, but overall conditions should
remain dry for the next 24 hours.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Upper level ridging will dominate North Texas weather on Friday
leading to a warm day. We`ll start off the morning mostly cloudy
as southerly winds will really begin to transport some deeper low
level moisture northward. A fast moving shortwave will spread into
the Central Plains during the day allowing a surface cyclone to
deepen resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across North
Texas. Breezy southerly winds and some partial clearing will allow
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s.

As the surface low over the Plains pulls away, a cold front will
slide southward and should be across southern Oklahoma by Saturday
afternoon and may eventually slide into North Texas. We should
initially be under the continued influence of mid level ridging,
but by late afternoon, mid and upper level flow begins to
strengthen with weak height falls spreading into the region. This
suggests that there may be some weak forcing for ascent spreading
in from West Texas. Although we will be capped, strong heating
during the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid and
upper 80s would be sufficient for surface parcels to convect,
especially with any forcing along the weak frontal boundary and
any assistance from weaker large scale forcing. The probability is
low (10-20%), but given the modest instability and steep lapse
rates, we`ll show some slightly higher PoPs across our northwest
counties late Saturday afternoon and evening. As this front lifts
northward Saturday night, we may actually see an increasing
coverage of showers/storms along the Red River and into Oklahoma.
Hail would be the main threat during this time.

On Sunday, a large upper trough will begin to dig southward into
California. As flow strengthens across the central Rockies,
surface pressures will fall over the Central Plains. A dryline
should move eastward Sunday afternoon and will likely be across
our far western counties. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will
help advect a fairly deep elevated mixed layer into the region by
Sunday afternoon which should help cap most of the area. It`s a
little unclear how sharp the dryline will be late Sunday afternoon
out west, but nonetheless a large area of low level convergence
and strong heating with increasing forcing aloft should be
sufficient for some scattered convection into the early evening
hours. Forecast sounding from the Stephenville area up to Bowie
show the cap completely eroding with 2000-2500 J/kg of instability
and modest deep layer shear. Flow in the 1-3 km layer is generally
weak, but a hail and damaging wind threat would accompany any
storms Sunday afternoon and evening.

The atmosphere should have ample time to recover from any
convective activity on Sunday for another round of storms on
Monday primarily across the northwest counties. As the large
upper trough continues to spread forcing for ascent across the
region and another dryline push comes in by late afternoon, we
should see thunderstorms develop once again. Similar to Sunday,
this initial activity would pose a severe risk with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat.

As we transition into Monday night through the middle of next
week, the threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
increases along with a threat for very heavy rainfall. The upper
trough will gradually close off over southern Arizona and New
Mexico during the day Monday and a cold front will slide south
through the Plains. The front will likely be a key player in the
heavy rainfall threat through the middle of the week as it
eventually becomes stationary and will provide a substantial
focus for low level convergence. With the position of the upper
trough to the west and a general slow forward speed, the pieces
appear to be coming together for a heavy rainfall event through
the middle of next week. Upper flow will become increasingly
diffluent and strengthen to over 100 kt by Tuesday. Deep
unidirectional flow and a steady influx of low level moisture
(850 mb dewpoints > 14C) in the vicinity of a stalled frontal
boundary will persist Tuesday through Thursday suggesting that
multiple rounds of training showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. It`s a good bet that parts of North Texas will pick up 2
to 4 inches of rainfall through next week, although those totals
could go much higher given the exact location of the surface and
upper features. We`ll continue to monitor this threat over the
coming days.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  59  82  68  87 /   0   0  10   5  10
Waco                78  59  84  64  86 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               73  55  77  61  82 /   0   0   5  10  10
Denton              77  59  82  64  86 /   0   0  10   5  10
McKinney            75  57  77  64  85 /   0   0   5   5  10
Dallas              78  60  82  67  87 /   0   0   5   5  10
Terrell             76  57  79  63  83 /   0   0   5   5   5
Corsicana           77  58  80  63  84 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              78  59  85  65  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       80  60  86  61  89 /   0   0   5   0  10




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