528
FXUS64 KFWD 171728
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

We are monitoring two areas for potential isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon. The first is across portions of
western North Texas near the axis of an eastward-progressing mid-
level trough. A couple of weak radar echoes can already be
observed northwest of Throckmorton, TX. The second location is
north of I-20 primarily near/along the Red River where surface low
pressure in south-central Oklahoma is leading to a dense cumulus
field. With subtle ascent from these features and some help from
daytime heating, a lack of focusable surface boundaries will keep
storm coverage rather isolated (15-25% chance north of I-20). It
is entirely possible that much of this afternoon`s activity
remains north of the Red River in Oklahoma, but recent CAM
guidance does highlight the potential for a storm or two in our
forecast area. Although we will have ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the
areas of interest this afternoon, only 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear
should keep the severe threat on the lower end. However, we cannot
rule out some hail or gusty winds IF a thunderstorm develops.
Again, it is uncertain if we will have enough lift for a parcel to
achieve its LFC here in our forecast area. Decaying showers and
thunderstorms over the Hill Country may make a run for our far
southwestern zones later this evening/early overnight (10%
chance), however it is much more likely they dissipate before
reaching our forecast area.

As we move into the overnight, expect clearing skies with
temperatures lowering into the low to mid-60s by early Saturday
morning. There is potential for some patchy fog across our
eastern-southeastern zones early Saturday morning as well. Ridging
aloft will begin to develop overhead Saturday beginning a much-
needed several day reprieve from rain chances. South-southwesterly
low-level flow and plentiful sunshine will allow for temperatures
to peak in the mid-80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

After our period of unsettled weather, a rain-free interlude will
begin this weekend with temperatures and humidity steadily
increasing into early next week. A cold front may approach during
the middle of the upcoming week, increasing cloud cover and
reintroducing rain chances, but seasonally warm temperatures will
prevail.

The storm system that doused the region yesterday will finally
pass east of our meridian Friday night, being replaced by ridging
aloft. Positive mid-level height anomalies will prevail into next
week, pushing daytime temperatures into the 90s. Combined with
rich Gulf moisture, this weekend will remind us that the Texas
summer is right around the corner. The heat and humidity will
culminate on Tuesday when heat index values will top 100 in many
locations.

The rather strong early-season subtropical ridging over Mexico
that will nose into the Lone Star State will keep the spring
storm tracks to our north. However, a midweek shortwave emerging
from the Rockies and transiting the Central Plains will manage to
deamplify the ridge a bit, potentially sending a cold front in our
direction. There is little agreement as to how far equatorward
the boundary will penetrate, the eventual evolution perhaps
governed by its associated convection. In any event, its proximity
should by sufficient to return rain/storm chances to the
forecast. However, the current forecast will maintain the
plurality of southerly winds and seasonally warm temperatures
throughout the upcoming workweek.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all TAF
sites. FEW to SCT 025-030 cigs will likely persist through this
afternoon. Expect light west-northwesterly winds through this
afternoon shifting south-southwest later this evening, becoming
variable at times during the overnight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of North Texas
this afternoon, however the bulk of this activity is expected to
remain near the Red River and north of the D10 sites. Patchy fog
will be possible across portions of east and southeast TX early
Saturday morning, but should largely remain displaced from KACT
and the D10 sites.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  67  92  70  92 /  10  10   0   0   0
Waco                82  66  88  69  90 /   5   5   0   0   0
Paris               81  63  87  65  90 /  20  20   5   0   0
Denton              81  63  91  68  92 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            81  64  89  68  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dallas              85  67  92  70  93 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             82  64  88  67  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           82  67  90  70  92 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              82  64  89  68  90 /   5  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       81  63  91  68  92 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$