Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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865 FXUS64 KFWD 090508 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1208 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Monday/ A slow moving upper trough is over northern Baja California tonight with high level moisture spreading east across Texas. This is resulting in a scattering of high cloud cover across the region. Southerly winds around 10 mph will continue with an overall warm night expected. Lows will only drop into the mid 70s. On Sunday, mid level ridging will continue to be shunted eastward a bit as a weak cold front slides southward through the Plains. This frontal boundary is currently draped across the KS/OK border and is providing a focus for thunderstorms tonight. This thunderstorm activity will remain well removed from our area until late Sunday night when the frontal boundary pushes south of the Red River. While a few storms may linger into the overnight hours, weak mid and upper level winds should inhibit a more organized complex of storms. Nonetheless, we`ll have 20-30% PoPs after midnight across our far northern counties. On Monday, the frontal boundary will become more diffuse, but should generally be located somewhere along or just south of I-20. Low and mid tropospheric flow will be very weak with only subtle disturbances spreading through the Plains, but modest instability will be in place across North Texas. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the remnant frontal boundary during peak heating. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but the strongest storms could produce some low end severe wind gusts or hail. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler given the increase in cloud cover and rain chances. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/ /Sunday Night Through Next Weekend/ We`ll be watching two distinct areas of convection Sunday afternoon, one associated with a West Texas dryline and the other with a late-season cold front in Oklahoma. The West Texas activity will separate from the dryline, encouraged to move into the deeper moisture to the east, but generally weak steering flow will make this a slow process. The frontal convection to our north should steadily become outflow-dominant, weakening or diminishing entirely during the evening hours. Both of these areas will be largely driven by daytime heating, and with little upper support and no nocturnal low-level jet, neither should thrive Sunday night. Low PoPs will address the potential for either/both areas to enter the region during the overnight hours. The 3-km NAM is bullish on renewed convection along the frontal/outflow boundary early Monday morning, but with little to support this, other available CAM guidance is more appropriately quiet. Weak shear should focus the convective mode toward rather disorganized multi- cell clusters that at worst could contain small hail and gusty winds. As is typical for this time of year, guidance has poor handle on the evolution of the surface boundary. Despite the uncertainty in its position on Monday, it should still remain in the vicinity, serving as a focus for convective initiation during the afternoon hours. Sunday`s activity across West Texas will have disrupted the mid-level flow, and this weakness will be drifting over North and Central Texas at peak heating Monday afternoon. While this may encourage additional showers and storms to develop (not associated with the surface boundary), these convective elements will also suffer from weak shear. But with adequate instability, the stronger cells could still result in small hail and gusty winds. A more potent shortwave will dive into North Texas on Tuesday when another round of showers and storms may result. Seasonally warm temperatures and rich boundary layer moisture will maintain the instability, and the disturbance aloft will introduce an uptick in shear. But with weak boundary layer flow and the lack of any surface focus, any convection would likely remain disorganized Tuesday afternoon. However, the GFS wants to surge an MCS through the region. The ECMWF delays this potential until Wednesday. After the rain/cloud-diminished temperatures during the first half of the upcoming workweek, ridging will nose back into the Lone Star State, pushing daytime temperatures back above normal late in the week. Next weekend looks like a repeat of this weekend, seasonal early summer temperatures with elevated humidity. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will generally prevail with southerly winds around 10 kt tonight. Some scattered MVFR stratus is expected to develop in the Hill Country and may impact Waco during the early morning hours Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak front will approach the D10 airspace late Sunday and low level winds will likely become more easterly. As the front pushes south late Sunday night, a northeast wind is expected and will be addressed in the extended portion of the DFW TAF. In addition, MVFR cigs may accompany the frontal passage early Monday morning. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 73 87 72 / 0 0 10 30 20 Waco 73 91 74 88 72 / 0 0 5 20 20 Paris 71 91 70 83 67 / 0 0 10 20 10 Denton 75 94 70 85 70 / 0 0 20 30 20 McKinney 75 93 71 85 70 / 0 0 10 20 20 Dallas 74 94 73 87 72 / 0 0 10 30 20 Terrell 70 90 71 86 69 / 0 0 5 20 20 Corsicana 71 92 74 88 73 / 0 0 5 20 20 Temple 72 93 73 90 72 / 0 0 0 20 10 Mineral Wells 72 95 72 87 71 / 0 0 20 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$