140
FXUS64 KFWD 060603
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
103 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

The weak front that pushed through behind Wednesday morning`s
MCS continues to be stalled, draped across Central Texas. With
surface winds becoming light across the region, this boundary can
be seen by a sharper dewpoint gradient: 60s to the north and 70s
to the south. Calm winds and generally clear conditions will
persist through this morning as a surface ridge stays planted
across the Ark-La-Tex, allowing efficient radiational cooling to
take place. Expect temperatures to be able to bottom out mainly in
the 60s. These aforementioned conditions, coupled with lower
dewpoint depressions and antecedent saturated soils, will allow
for the formation of patchy fog through mid-morning. This will be
especially true for areas near and east of I-35, where the most
recent rainfall fell.

Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is in store for North and
Central Texas to end out the week as upper level ridging builds
in. However, a cold front will advance south through the Central
Plains as its upper level support moves into New England. The
front should make it into Oklahoma today. While subsidence from
the aforementioned ridge should stunt much convective initiation,
a subtle shortwave disturbance rounding the periphery of the ridge
will allow for isolated storms chances to develop to our
northwest this afternoon. Have retained low 20% or less PoPs for
our northwestern counties this afternoon for the potential for a
stray shower/storm. Otherwise, expect a warm afternoon with highs
in the 90s region-wide.

The front will stall before making it south of the Red River on
Friday, and will eventually be ushered north as a warm front.
Another impulse rounding the ridge will allow for the potential
for rain/storms near the front, but expansive dry air underneath
the mid-level moisture and overall subsidence will keep most dry
on Friday as well. Have persisted with low chance PoPs along the
Red River as some guidance continues to show light precipitation
echoes during this time.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/
/Friday and Beyond/

Overhead mid-level ridging will keep a mostly dry forecast over
our forecast area through the end of the week minus a couple low
chances across far North Texas. Expect afternoon high temperatures
in the low to mid-90s through the weekend, possibly approaching
the century mark west of Hwy 281 on Saturday. The stalled frontal
boundary over Oklahoma may provide a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development again Friday afternoon. As we move into
the time range of several convective-allowing models, hints at
some Thursday night/Friday morning convection over Oklahoma are
beginning to appear. Outflow from these thunderstorms may act as
another focal point for convective initiation near the Red River
Friday afternoon. However, a stout capping inversion and
subsidence associated with mid-level ridging will be acting
against storms developing keeping rain chances low (~15%) and
coverage very isolated (if storms even develop).

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will dig south over the northern
Great Plains shunting the aforementioned mid-level high pressure
south and east opening portions of the Southern Plains back up for
some overnight MCS activity. Although the better potential for
this activity looks to remain north, a thunderstorm complex may
scrape across our far northern Red River counties Saturday night.
More area-wide rain chances look to return in the Sunday-Monday
timeframe as guidance continues to highlight a stronger frontal
passage over North and Central Texas. We will keep at least low
end rain chances through the middle of next week as our region
looks to remain under active northwest flow aloft. North-
northeasterly winds, increased cloudiness, and potential
precipitation may nudge temperatures back into the 80s across much
of North and Central Texas by Monday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A much quieter night is expected with light/variable winds and VFR
prevailing at all TAF sites. There is potential for patchy
mist/fog to occur after midnight into the mid-morning hours thanks
to the aforementioned conditions and antecedent soil
moisture/rainfall. Guidance is not showing much of a reduction in
visibilities, so have kept 6SM for now until we see how
observational trends occur.

Winds will eventually settle out of the ESE-SE later this
afternoon and will prevail through the rest of the period. Some
mid-level cloud cover is possible later this (Thursday) evening,
but will not cause flight/operational impacts.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  95  73  94  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Waco                67  93  70  93  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               64  91  69  89  72 /   0   0   5  20   0
Denton              63  94  70  93  76 /   0   0  10  10   0
McKinney            65  93  70  92  75 /   0   0   5  10   0
Dallas              68  96  72  94  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Terrell             66  91  70  92  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           68  93  71  94  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              69  94  70  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  96  70  95  75 /   0   0  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$