988
FXUS64 KFWD 210740
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
240 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/
/Through Tuesday Night/

The remainder of the night will feature dry and quiet conditions
as the overhead mid-level ridge exits to the east. Broad troughing
will dig over the western CONUS setting the stage for a few active
weather days during the midweek period. Increasing moisture along
southerly low-level flow will draw stratus northward over North
and Central Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning, lifting and
scattering by midday Tuesday. Expect warm and humid conditions
with temperatures starting in the mid-70s for the Tuesday morning
commute. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region (potentially
mid-90s across the Big Country). Abundant moisture marked by
surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will produce heat index
values in the 95-100 degree range.

A conditional setup for isolated severe thunderstorms will exist
across our western zones late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. The greater synoptic-scale ascent will remain far
displaced to the north ahead of a mid-level shortwave passing over
northern Oklahoma/Kansas. However, daytime heating and surface
convergence along a dryline may offer enough support to get a few
isolated thunderstorms going along the dryline as the cap weakens
by 4-5pm Tuesday evening (~20% chance of this occurring). This
dryline will likely be positioned from Bowie-Jacksboro-Cisco
during the time of potential convective initiation. The
environment will support severe weather if thunderstorms do
develop with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. The
loss of daytime heating and increasing SBCIN will allow storms to
weaken as they shift east through the evening and early overnight,
likely dissipating as they approach the I-35/35W corridor.

The remainder of Tuesday night will feature warm, humid
conditions with another surge of low-level stratus ahead of a cold
front that will bring the potential for more widespread severe
weather Wednesday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Onward/

A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a
shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be
ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red
River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low
level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between
I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a
90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the
resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will
lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and
damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front
may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent
warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado
development.

Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening,
with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near
the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally
heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue
where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind
down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually
dissipating during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough
passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other
possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing
a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than
sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic
guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday,
but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of
convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through
Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The
persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the
best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the
surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the
front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better
storm chances southward into Central Texas.

Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a
hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the
lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday
afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red
River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with
parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on
Saturday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm
coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop
would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes
will send a cold front southward into the region once again on
Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight
chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the
front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but
drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus around 1200-1500ft will overspread much of North and
Central Texas later tonight, reaching KACT by ~08Z and the D10
terminals by ~10Z. There is a less than 20% chance that IFR
conditions (cigs ~800-900ft) may briefly be realized early
Tuesday morning at KACT and other Central Texas terminals, so we
opted to keep it out of the 06Z issuance. Cigs should gradually
lift through the morning, becoming VFR by 16Z-17Z for much of the
region. South flow at 12-16 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25kts
is expected tomorrow.

There is a low chance that a few isolated thunderstorms may
develop along a dryline west of the D10 terminals between 21Z-23Z
Tuesday afternoon/evening. If storms do develop, they would move
east toward the I-35 corridor in the 00Z-02Z timeframe. However,
it is likely that these thunderstorms, if they are to develop,
will weaken/dissipate before approaching I-35/35W. A conditional
setup for thunderstorms to develop, isolated coverage, and the
potential for storms to dissipate before impacting our terminals
will keep us from adding VCTS to the TAF at this moment. However,
we will continue to monitor, especially for potential impacts to
the UKW and JEN cornerposts.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  76  89  74  86 /  10  10  60  40  50
Waco                89  76  89  74  88 /   5  10  20  20  40
Paris               88  74  87  70  84 /  10  20  60  60  50
Denton              89  75  88  72  85 /  10  10  60  50  60
McKinney            89  75  88  72  84 /  10  10  60  50  50
Dallas              91  76  90  74  87 /  10  10  60  40  50
Terrell             89  75  88  72  86 /  10  10  50  40  50
Corsicana           91  76  90  75  89 /   5  10  20  20  40
Temple              90  75  89  74  89 /   5  10  10  10  30
Mineral Wells       91  74  88  71  86 /  20  20  50  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$