154
FXUS63 KGID 122020
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
320 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures today and Thursday. Heat index values from
  the mid 90s to around 100 degrees today and up to near 105
  degrees for southern portions of the area tomorrow.

- Possible severe storms Thursday and Friday into Friday night.
  The greatest chance (up to near 85%) of precipitation will be
  Friday night.

- Rain and storm chances will continue from Saturday through
  Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level ridge is centered over Arizona and New Mexico with
northwest flow over south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. A strengthening surface trough to the northwest has
resulted in gusty southwest winds across most of the area.
Temperatures are also heating up with highs expected to reach the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees. The winds will weaken this evening
into tonight with the surface trough still across the area. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday and Thursday night...

A cold front associated with an upper trough moving over southern
Canada and the Upper Midwest will move into Nebraska and Kansas on
Thursday. Gusty, northerly winds are expected behind the front with
a surface trough along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will be
cooler than the previous day for much of Nebraska on Thursday due to
the passage of the front. However, temperatures across far southern
portions of Nebraska and north central Kansas will be similar or
slightly warmer than the previous day. High temperatures on Thursday
are expected to range from the mid 80s to around 100 degrees. Heat
index values will generally range from near 100 to near 105 degrees
for areas along and ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms
may impact (15% to near 25% chance) areas generally south of the Tri-
Cities Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The highest chances
for storms will be in north central Kansas. High CAPE and mid-level
lapse rates are expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening
according to the NAM12 along and ahead of the cold front. Modest
wind shear is also expected along with increased lift across the
area. These conditions will allow for some of the storms to become
strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. Winds will weaken across the area Thursday night with lows
in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Friday and Friday night...

The upper ridge moves more over the southern and central Plains on
Friday. Winds will become breezy out of the southeast across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Upper
shortwaves will be moving over the area on Friday providing enhanced
lift. CAPE and wind shear will be fairly modest across most of the
area on Friday according to the NAM12. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be 15% to around 40% on Friday and will increase up to
near 85% Friday evening/night. Most of the forecast area is
outlooked in a slight risk for severe weather Friday into Friday
night according to the Storm Prediction Center. High temperatures on
Friday will generally be in the 80s with some lower 90s. Low
temperatures Friday night will mostly be in the 60s with some lower
70s with southeast winds.

Saturday through Tuesday night...

A shortwave/upper trough will be moving over the central Plains on
Saturday. This will allow for chances up to around 40% of showers
and thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night. High temperatures
will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s with southerly winds. Low
temperatures Saturday night will range from the low 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures will increase even more on Sunday with highs generally
in the upper 80s to upper 90s with mostly sunny skies. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. An
upper trough approaching from the west will be over most of the
western half of the country on Monday. High temperatures on Monday
will be similar to those from the previous day. The upper trough
will begin to lift northeastward Monday night with a cold front
approaching the area. The cold front may already be moving through
the area by Tuesday morning. Low temperatures Monday night will
depend on the timing of the front but expect them to generally be in
the low 60s to mid 70s. The cold front will finish moving through
the area on Tuesday with high temperatures expected to range from
the mid 70s to lower 90s. Temperatures Tuesday night will be cooler
behind the front with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. There is a
chance of showers and storms from Sunday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds will weaken and become westerly by this evening.
Then light and variable winds are expected overnight. Winds will
strengthen out of the north between 15z and 18z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt