882
FXUS63 KGLD 191139
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- Better chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight
  from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska.

- Temperatures warming up on Thursday and Friday with low
  chances for evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
gradually expand across the area through the overnight hours.
Appears to be tied to the leading edge of weak isentropic life
overspreading the area from the south, with perhaps some weak
help from a perturbation in the southwest flow aloft. Either
way, synoptic scale lift is broad and weak. MUCAPE is around
500-1000 j/kg with some pockets of higher amounts, with no
appreciable increase forecast through today. So, with the cool
conditions and limited instability not expecting severe storms.
The signals for heavy rain have moved far to the south of the
area near the surface front, so no longer anticipating flooding
and cancelled the watch. Best chances for showers will shift
into far southwest area by late morning, then gradually spread
eastward again this afternoon. Coverage will be scattered at
best. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Tonight, expect an
increase precipitation chances this evening in northeast
Colorado and the Tri-border area, then moving into southwest
Nebraska overnight with a shortwave trough moving out of
Colorado and the front lifting north as a warm front also
providing lift. Precipitation chances should end by 12z as it
continues to move out to the north. Low temperatures will be in
the 50s to lower 60s.

For Thursday, southwest flow continues around the strong ridge
over the eastern CONUS. Main storm track with weak shortwaves
rotating around it will be from the Colorado Front Range into
western Nebraska. The northwest and northern forecast area,
Yuma County into southwest Nebraska, may get clipped by some of
these showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. However,
severe storms are not anticipated as the marginal risk stays to
the northwest. Also expecting breezy to windy conditions to
develop Thursday afternoon along the Kansas and Colorado border
area with gusts of up to 40 mph through the early evening before
diminishing. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in
the upper 80s with plenty of sun, and lows Thursday night in
the 60s.

For Friday, the upper ridge to the east does show some signs of
weakening over the area as a shortwave trough comes out of the
central Rockies in the afternoon and evening. So may see
slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms with that
feature Friday night, with best chances north of Interstate 70
including southwest Nebraska. Currently not outlooked for severe
thunderstorms due to weak instability. Appears that a weak
surface cold front will sag into the area late Friday night, but
have little impact other than a wind shift. High temperatures
will be in the lower 90s and lows Friday night in the 60s and
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, a broad, elongated 500mb ridge will be
stretched across the southern portion of the country, allowing for
zonal flow aloft to persist through the upcoming weekend. Going into
next week, this ridge will amplify some into the central Rockies,
shifting the flow aloft to more northwesterly through midweek.

Several shortwaves are expected to move across the northern
periphery of this ridge and across the CWA. These will mainly occur
during the afternoon and evening hours. The shortwaves will interact
with surface boundaries/fronts coming off the Rockies, allowing for
mainly 15-30% chances for storms. Highest chance on Tuesday.

Hot conditions are expected each day with 850mb temps over the
weekend in the mid to upper 20s, but going into the Mon-Wed
timeframe, 850 temps reach well into the 30s each day. GFS soundings
around the 00z timeframe each day show inverted-v profiles and high
DCape values, suggesting wind threats with storms could be probable.
The positioning of the boundaries/troughs each afternoon are
allowing for a E/SE surface flow into the CWA, especially for KS/NE.
This will allow for increased moisture/PW values over an inch,
especially next week.

For temps, the region will be looking at well above normal
conditions each day. For the upcoming weekend, daytime highs will
range mainly in the 90s. A few spots in northeast Colorado may only
reach the upper 80s. Going into next week, hot conditions will
continue with highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 90s to lower
100s, with slightly cooler conditions wednesday with 90s. Each day
the forecasted highs will be several degrees below records. Lows
will range mainly in the 60s, with some locales east of Highway 25
on Monday/Tuesday nights around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Both KGLD and KMCK will start VFR this morning. However, low
clouds are moving in from the south and KGLD will have IFR
ceilings by mid morning and then through the remainder of the
TAF period. At KMCK, lower ceilings will not arrive until
sometime this evening before going IFR. There will be scattered
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms in the region through
the entire period, with low confidence in timing any associated
brief reductions in visibility or ceiling at either terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024