Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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124 FXUS63 KGLD 252056 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 256 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average to slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions expected through the upcoming weekend. - There is the potential for a system to move through at the beginning of next week, bringing near to below average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A pronounced upper level ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies to the High Plains (today-tonight), stalling over the region Thu-Thu night. Expect benign weather characterized by clear skies, dry conditions and light southerly winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Fri-Sun: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a broad upper ridge will prevail over the majority of the lower 48 in this period -- albeit with a cut-off low trapped therein, meandering invof the Central/Southern MS River Valley where it will inevitably (and somewhat uniquely) interact with Tropical Cyclone Helene. As long as the cut-off low remains well downstream of the Tri-State area (as guidance presently indicates).. expect benign weather and near average temperatures. Monday-ish: Long range guidance indicates cooler temperatures and breezy north winds assoc/w a dry cold frontal passage in/around this period. The aforementioned cold front appears to be synoptically driven, e.g. associated with a progressive upper trough in the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies over Canada and the far northern CONUS. In such a pattern, confidence is relatively high that a cold frontal passage will occur in the lee of the northern and central Rockies. Whether or not (and/or to what extent) impactful fire weather will arise will highly depend upon specific aspects of the frontal passage, e.g. timing and magnitude, both of which are difficult to confidently assess at this range. Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies will descend from on-high (Canada) to lesser latitudes (CONUS) in this period, though.. considerable disagreement persists with regard to the nature of the pattern, e.g. by 12Z Thu the GFS solution is 180 degrees out of phase with the ECMWF solution. With the above in mind.. the forecast will be steered toward climatology. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 935 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ..Excellent Aviation Conditions.. VFR conditions, clear skies and light winds (initially variable, shifting to the SE and S tonight) will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Vincent