Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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042 FXUS63 KGLD 220759 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 159 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop over portions of the Tri-State area today. Rainfall amounts have decreased in comparison to prior forecasts. Hazardous weather is not expected. - Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for eastern Colorado by Monday morning, potentially allowing for some patches of frost. There is a concern for fog formation Monday morning, too. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current observations show moisture streaming in from the south with cloud cover over almost all of the area. Temperatures are now holding steady in the 70`s with the cold front through the area and the cloud cover holding temperatures. Winds are beginning to lower a tad as the front moves further away and mixing has been cut off by the cloud cover. These conditions should hold through the afternoon. Going into the evening and overnight hours, precipitation is forecast to begin for southeastern portions of the area as the moisture continues to stream in and shift to the northeast. An area of surface convergence is also forecast to set up in the southeast which will develop the bulk of the storms and precipitation. The rest of the area may not see precip until later in the evening as a dry streak cuts through the area. However, as the upper trough swings through, additional storms are forecast to fire up along the higher terrain and move east into and hopefully through the area. The main issue again will be the dry air intrusion and how saturated the air column is. Current forecasts are not very optimistic with most having the area with rain totals around a tenth or two. However, larger amounts can be expected if the surface convergence boundary stays near the area in the south and if enough moisture can rotate around the whole system in the area before the higher pressure and upper feature push it all to the east (max amounts around an inch or two). Tomorrow, a much cooler day is forecast as cloud cover lingers through much of the day along with some lingering showers. Will need to keep an eye on how much dry air moves in from the north and how much streams in through the mid-levels. If too much dry air is present, the cloud cover would dissipate earlier than forecast and temperatures likely warm to around 60. Winds are forecast to remain around 10 to 15 mph from the north as the higher surface pressure moves into the area. Tomorrow night, any linger cloud cover is forecast to dissipate as drier air continues to advect into the area. Winds are also forecast to become calm or light as the high pressure broadens out over the area. These conditions will allow for much cooler temperatures in the area with 30`s and 40`s possible. Eastern Colorado and the Tri- State border area may even see frost potential. With the clear skies and calm winds, it`ll be up to how much dry air moves in and how much dewpoints lower. Dewpoints in the low to mid 30`s are possible with temperatures a few degrees warmer forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 159 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Below average forecast confidence. Forecast confidence typically decreases with range -- `below average` in this context is intended to communicate a further reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased pattern complexity -- e.g. patterns with cut-off waves, multibranched wave interactions and potentially significant forms of constructive/destructive interference or feedback. Guidance continues to diverge Tue-Tue night.. as a pronounced upper level ridge progresses east across the Intermountain West and Rockies. Solutions via recent (00 UTC 09/22) operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF are consistent only in the sense that they remain inconsistent. Both models suggest that some degree of northern and southern stream jet phasing (or interaction) within a complex split flow regime on the eastern periphery of the advancing ridge will foster the development of a closed low somewhere invof the Central/Northern MS River Valley Tue night. Poor model-to-model and run-to-run continuity essentially precludes further discussion, other than to say that.. whatever the outcome, hazardous weather seems unlikely. Steering the forecast toward climatology remains the most viable course of action at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 950 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are anticipated through 12z with winds from the northeast around 13kts. Rain showers are possible after about 08z. From 13z-16z, sub VFR cigs are possible along with light rain showers and northerly winds around 12kts. After 17z, VFR conditions return. Northerly winds around 10kts become light and variable after 01z. KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Northeast winds around 12kts at taf issuance will continue through 08z, falling below 12kts around 09z then light and variable after 23z. Light rain showers will be possible over the terminal from about 09z-17z as a weather system moves over the area from the southwest. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...99