Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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239 FXUS63 KGLD 191839 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1239 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. - Better chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska. - Temperatures warming up on Thursday and Friday with low chances for evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to gradually expand across the area through the overnight hours. Appears to be tied to the leading edge of weak isentropic life overspreading the area from the south, with perhaps some weak help from a perturbation in the southwest flow aloft. Either way, synoptic scale lift is broad and weak. MUCAPE is around 500-1000 j/kg with some pockets of higher amounts, with no appreciable increase forecast through today. So, with the cool conditions and limited instability not expecting severe storms. The signals for heavy rain have moved far to the south of the area near the surface front, so no longer anticipating flooding and cancelled the watch. Best chances for showers will shift into far southwest area by late morning, then gradually spread eastward again this afternoon. Coverage will be scattered at best. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Tonight, expect an increase precipitation chances this evening in northeast Colorado and the Tri-border area, then moving into southwest Nebraska overnight with a shortwave trough moving out of Colorado and the front lifting north as a warm front also providing lift. Precipitation chances should end by 12z as it continues to move out to the north. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s. For Thursday, southwest flow continues around the strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. Main storm track with weak shortwaves rotating around it will be from the Colorado Front Range into western Nebraska. The northwest and northern forecast area, Yuma County into southwest Nebraska, may get clipped by some of these showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. However, severe storms are not anticipated as the marginal risk stays to the northwest. Also expecting breezy to windy conditions to develop Thursday afternoon along the Kansas and Colorado border area with gusts of up to 40 mph through the early evening before diminishing. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 80s with plenty of sun, and lows Thursday night in the 60s. For Friday, the upper ridge to the east does show some signs of weakening over the area as a shortwave trough comes out of the central Rockies in the afternoon and evening. So may see slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms with that feature Friday night, with best chances north of Interstate 70 including southwest Nebraska. Currently not outlooked for severe thunderstorms due to weak instability. Appears that a weak surface cold front will sag into the area late Friday night, but have little impact other than a wind shift. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows Friday night in the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The area will be under west-northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge axis crosses the Rockies at the close of the weekend with high pressure centered over the southern CONUS. Low pressure moving across Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba will work to (briefly) flatten the ridge, promoting more of a zonal flow, and shortwaves moving through will keep slight chance afternoon-evening PoPs, generally around 15- 20%. Towards the latter part of the long term period, ridging again amplifies upstream as an upper low meanders along the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. For temperatures, the warming trend continues with low-mid 90s Sunday followed by return of near-triple digit to triple digit heat by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through about 13z with VFR conditions after 14z. Surface winds will be from the east at 10-15kts, highest around taf issuance for an hour or two. After 14z, southerly winds increase with gusts up to 30kts. Regarding precipitation chances, will remain pessimistic with showers, maybe a thunderstorm in the vicinity from around 20z-06z. Will be monitoring for the possibility of br/fg tonight. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 20z with winds from the east around 11-13kts. From 21z-15z, sub VFR cigs are expected with winds from the east to southeast at speeds around 10kts. After 16z, VFR conditions return with winds from the southeast, gusting up to 20kts. Regarding precipitation chances, will remain pessimistic with showers, maybe a thunderstorm in the vicinity from around 05z-13z. Will be monitoring for the possibility of br/fg tonight. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...99