Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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141 FXUS63 KGLD 190649 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1249 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of northwest Kansas late tonight and early Wednesday morning, mainly south of Interstate 70, where an isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. - Much cooler daytime temperatures expected on Wednesday, with near record low daytime max temperatures. - Windy and warmer Thursday-Friday with generally dry weather. - Slim chances (20%) for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday with highs in the 90s and lower 100s (hottest Monday and Tuesday). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Tonight...showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage as they spread northwestward with the highest pops (50%-80% generally across all but Yuma and Dundy counties. NAM 250mb jet divergence favors areas generally south of I-70 for higher rainfall totals after midnight which is also where PWAT values are highest, around 1.4-1.6 inches and closer to the stalled frontal boundary. The inherited Flood Watch looks good. Not sure (based on DESI) that a few locations could see 4 inches of rain but general 1 to 2 with localized 3 inch amounts are reasonable. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to near 60. Wednesday-Wednesday night...widespread low cloud cover will be over the area through the period. Morning rain showers should become less likely through the day as dry air aloft moves in from the south/southwest and moisture below 700mb moves toward the north. Presently, 30%-70% pops in the morning decrease to around 30% in the afternoon and that could be generous. Overnight, it appears another weather system moves through from south to north, supporting 50%-60% pops. Overall qpf values are pretty low with a few hundredths to tenth of an inch possible. With the widespread cloud cover and wedge of cooler air aloft, have lower high temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s in far eastern Colorado with lower to upper 60s elsewhere. Further adjustments will likely be needed, possibly lowering highs if the NAM verifies which is quite possible. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Thursday-Thursday night...drier air in the 850-500mb layer quickly overtakes the area by mid to late morning, ending any precipitation chances (currently at 20% in the morning). Generally dry conditions continue overnight. Southerly winds strengthen during the day with gusts of 25 to 40 mph, highest west of Highway 27. Breezy to windy southerly winds continue overnight, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures rise back into the middle 80s with low temperatures in the lower to upper 60s. Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states. This pattern funnels moisture into the area from the south. Presently, there are varying solutions as to just how much moisture reaches the area with the NAM more optimistic compared to the GFS and ECMWF. As a result, the forecast is generally dry for now. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower 60s to middle 70s. It will continue to be windy with southerly winds gusting to 45 mph during the day, slowly decreasing overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 From the latest GFS/ECMWF, a broad, elongated 500mb ridge will be stretched across the southern portion of the country, allowing for zonal flow aloft to persist through the upcoming weekend. Going into next week, this ridge will amplify some into the central Rockies, shifting the flow aloft to more northwesterly through midweek. Several shortwaves are expected to move across the northern periphery of this ridge and across the CWA. These will mainly occur during the afternoon and evening hours. The shortwaves will interact with surface boundaries/fronts coming off the Rockies, allowing for mainly 15-30% chances for storms. Highest chance on Tuesday. Hot conditions are expected each day with 850mb temps over the weekend in the mid to upper 20s, but going into the Mon-Wed timeframe, 850 temps reach well into the 30s each day. GFS soundings around the 00z timeframe each day show inverted-v profiles and high DCape values, suggesting wind threats with storms could be probable. The positioning of the boundaries/troughs each afternoon are allowing for a E/SE surface flow into the CWA, especially for KS/NE. This will allow for increased moisture/PW values over an inch, especially next week. For temps, the region will be looking at well above normal conditions each day. For the upcoming weekend, daytime highs will range mainly in the 90s. A few spots in northeast Colorado may only reach the upper 80s. Going into next week, hot conditions will continue with highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 90s to lower 100s, with slightly cooler conditions wednesday with 90s. Each day the forecasted highs will be several degrees below records. Lows will range mainly in the 60s, with some locales east of Highway 25 on Monday/Tuesday nights around 70F. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 915 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions (this evening) are expected to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR late tonight and Wednesday morning -- in assoc/w the development of elevated showers/storms and low ceilings. IFR (perhaps LIFR) conditions are anticipated to prevail through the duration of the TAF period -- through Wednesday evening. NE winds at 15-25 knots will decrease to 10-20 knots and gradually veer toward the E during the day on Wednesday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...BV