783
FXUS64 KHUN 291036
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
536 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A quiet weather morning is in progress with a mostly clear sky
and calm winds for most areas. Very patchy BR or FG may develop
this morning, but should not be widespread. High clouds associated
with thunderstorms all the way back in the Plains will thin quite
a bit as they enter the TN valley this afternoon. High temperatures
should be in the in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A west-northwest flow pattern will be in place the next couple of
days. This will bring a couple of weak shortwaves from the
southern Plains through AR and southeast through MS into central
and southern AL tonight into Thursday. At this point, any shower
chances associated with these will be very low and mainly south
and west of the Shoals and Huntsville areas.

On Friday into Saturday, a narrow ridge axis at 5h will shift east
into the OH and eastern TN valleys, allowing a trough axis to
enter the lower MO and MS valleys. A lead shortwave ahead of the
trough may arrive as early as Friday night into early Saturday,
but an initially dry low level atmosphere may delay arrival of
showers or thunderstorms until later on Saturday or Saturday
night. Thus, PoPs will remain in the low to mid chance range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The trough will shift east through the region Saturday night into
Sunday with varying degrees of amplification of the surface low,
front and convection. The GFS seems a bit over amplified in this
regard, but will monitor future model trends. In any case, the
main hazards over the weekend will be locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances will decrease Sunday night into Monday as the mid to
upper flow weakens across the southern U.S. However, with
continued south-southwest low level flow, a moist and unstable
environment will be supportive of chances of showers and
thunderstorms despite weak QG forcing into early to the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17