267
FXUS64 KHUN 291423
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
923 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 922 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A cold front can be seen in observations extending from the Ohio
Valley southwest through the Nashville, TN area and into SW TN.
Drier air is in place behind this frontal boundary as evidence of
dewpoint values in the upper 40s to 50s seen in surface analysis
behind the front.

Currently, dewpoints ahead of the front are in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and temperatures are in the 70 to 75 degree range. This
front in most guidance will continue to sink southeast into the
early/mid afternoon hours into northern Alabama. Based on progged
1000 mb winds in several models, think that the front will end up
oriented in a NW to SE fashion. This may allow portions of NW
Alabama to remain warmer this afternoon (highs in the 80 to 85
degree range). Further east, highs will likely be a bit cooler
with stronger cold air advection occurring behind the front in
those locations. Highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s looks
reasonable in those locations. Some isolated to scattered mid/high
clouds could form along the front this afternoon. These should
have little affect on afternoon temperatures.

Low level moisture as per OHX and BMX 7 AM soundings should limit
mixing down of dewpoints today. If temperatures end up being 2 or
3 degrees higher than expected, than some areas (mainly southern
middle TN and portions of NE Alabama) could experience more
efficient mixing of drier air aloft down to the surface. This
could end up lowering minimum relative humidity values lower than
currently forecasted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A west-northwest flow pattern will be in place the next couple of
days. This will bring a couple of weak shortwaves from the
southern Plains through AR and southeast through MS into central
and southern AL tonight into Thursday. At this point, any shower
chances associated with these will be very low and mainly south
and west of the Shoals and Huntsville areas.

On Friday into Saturday, a narrow ridge axis at 5h will shift east
into the OH and eastern TN valleys, allowing a trough axis to
enter the lower MO and MS valleys. A lead shortwave ahead of the
trough may arrive as early as Friday night into early Saturday,
but an initially dry low level atmosphere may delay arrival of
showers or thunderstorms until later on Saturday or Saturday
night. Thus, PoPs will remain in the low to mid chance range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The trough will shift east through the region Saturday night into
Sunday with varying degrees of amplification of the surface low,
front and convection. The GFS seems a bit over amplified in this
regard, but will monitor future model trends. In any case, the
main hazards over the weekend will be locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances will decrease Sunday night into Monday as the mid to
upper flow weakens across the southern U.S. However, with
continued south-southwest low level flow, a moist and unstable
environment will be supportive of chances of showers and
thunderstorms despite weak QG forcing into early to the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17