489
FXUS63 KICT 222340
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible for Thursday afternoon, more
  favorable late Thursday night

- A Higher-end severe weather setup is possible for Saturday
afternoon/night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Models hinting at an elevated convection signal late tonight/early
Thursday morning mainly across south central Nebraska/north central
Kansas. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with
a few strong storms capable of producing small hail.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy looking upper
level system over the northwestern states of Oregon/Washington. This
system will track eastward across the Rockies tonight and reach
western sections of South Dakota/Nebraska panhandle late tomorrow
afternoon. There is another upper level wave over far southern
California and this system looks to track northeast reaching
Oklahoma during the afternoon tomorrow. Very rich Gulf of Mexico
moisture(surface dewpoints upper 60s/low 70s) is currently
residing near the Red River region of southern Oklahoma/northern
Texas. This moisture will begin advecting northward into Kansas
during the day tomorrow in response to the approaching upper
level waves. CAM models are trying to develop convection along
the dry line tomorrow afternoon across central/south central
Kansas. Given decent cap aloft and no strong upper wave
approaching Kansas(could also have some low cloud problems)
lower confidence if storms can develop, therefore would expect
if anything can develop it would be more isolated to widely
scattered. If storms do develop in the afternoon the
environment is supportive of severe weather. Meanwhile
confidence is higher for storms impacting the area late Thursday
night, as a cold front races southeast across the region.
Strong low level moisture transport/low level jet will help feed
the convection with more numerous storms developing along the
frontal boundary as it track southeast across Nebraska/Kansas. A
forward propagating MCS is likely and could affect parts of
central/eastern Kansas with damaging winds. The activity should
shift east of the region Friday morning as surface high pressure
builds over Kansas during the day.

Models are advertising that ingredients could come together for a
higher-end severe weather setup to materialize for Saturday. The
combination of a healthy upper level wave moving into western Kansas
Saturday afternoon with a surging dry-line, anomalously stronger
than normal upper jetstream predicted by ensemble models and having
a more westerly component(pronounced orthogonal shear vector
orientation across the dry line boundary). This supports potential
robust supercell development especially with modeled high
instability and hodograph shapes showing decent curvature down
low with longer length in the mid-upper levels which would
favor longer-lived supercells. The supercells would be capable
of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The
key will be watching how these ingredient trends are maintained
and timing of the upper level wave by the models over the next
few days.

The upper level system begins to shift east of the area on
Sunday with some possible lingering showers/storms during the
morning hours. Otherwise models show a northwest flow regime
aloft setting up across the central plains for Sunday night
through mid week. This would keep the weather pattern generally
quiet as better moisture will likely remain south of the region.
A few models show possible elevated convection signal for
Monday night, however confidence is low this far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours with
light and variable winds. A warm front will lift across the area
Thursday morning, yielding a brief period of MVFR CIGS at HUT
and ICT. Confidence is too low for prevailing MVFR at the other
sites. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase to 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt. Storms are possible near GBD, RSL, HUT, and
ICT towards 00Z Friday but confidence is too low for mention at
this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...BMB