682
FXUS61 KILN 311956
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions
through this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected from late
Saturday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure slowly shifts off the east this evening into
tonight. As this occurs, and upper level vorticity max will approach
from the west thereby increasing southerly flow over the Ohio
Valley. Upper level clouds and moisture increase through the night
on the southerly flow. Forecast lows are in the middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are still expected to stick around Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level vorticity max and weak surface
disturbance. Mostly dry conditions may actually end up persisting
across the area until afternoon when rain finally starts to move in
from the west associated with the aforementioned system. A severe
threat is not at all expected since instability is minimal and shear
is well below severe thresholds. Dew points and cloud cover increase
through the day on weak southerly flow. Forecast highs are near 80.

The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level
trough axis pivoting through. Forecast QPF is less than and inch
with means there is little flood concern. Forecast lows drop into
the middle to lower 60s. Surface flow will be southerly to start the
night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the
trough axis.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers will still be ongoing at the start of the period as
weakening short wave continues east. But precipitation will
diminish as the day progresses. Any remaining surface boundary
will wash out and weak high pressure will build in resulting a
dry period from Sunday night through much of Monday night.

Mid level pattern will then evolve into a negatively tilted
omega block through the rest of the week. The region will be on
the troughing end of the block. This will bring chances of
showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday. That will continue
into Thursday when the mid level trough becomes deep enough to
force a front through the region. Drier conditions are forecast
for Friday as high pressure builds in to the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions persist through at least 1800z Saturday despite
increasing upper and mid level clouds. MVFR or lower conditions and
showers are eventually expected to develop after 1800z Saturday.

Southeasterly winds from 5-10 knots shifts to the south after 1200z
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Campbell