038
FXUS61 KILN 091758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region
today, leading to near normal temperatures. A cooler airmass
will briefly settle into the Ohio Valley on Monday before warmer
temperatures return through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
An isolated sprinkle cannot be ruled out in a few areas later
today, however in general most locations will stay dry and went
with a dry forecast. Went close to the blend for high
temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees. Winds will pick up some for the afternoon into the
early evening hours with wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph in
spots. Cloud cover will be variable. There are more clouds
across the southeast closer to the front. In addition, there
will be some cu development and also mid and high clouds from a
system southwest of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will drop down across the western
Great Lakes tonight and pivot across the upper Ohio Valley
through the day on Monday. This will be accompanied by a
surface trough axis, but deeper moisture remains somewhat
limited so expect the net effect will mainly be just an
increase in clouds on Monday. This will also allow for a cooler
airmass to settle into the area for Monday with daytime highs
only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chilly start to the extended period with most locations reaching the
upper 40s Tuesday morning as high pressure persists over the Ohio
Valley. Low-level flow becomes more variable during the afternoon
with the high pressure meandering around the region. This results in
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday. High pressure
shifts to the east Wednesday, once again leading to more favorable
warming conditions back to above normal. No rainfall is expected for
through midweek.

Uncertainty begins to increase Thursday/Friday as the details remain
unclear regarding the shortwave trough digging into the
Midwest/Great Lakes. Both ECMWF and GFS ensembles continue to waffle
with the depth of the trough axis, suggesting lower confidence for
temperature and rainfall forecasts on those days. Both ensemble
systems still have the ridge axis eventually shifting eastward
during the weekend so the trough may only delay the onset of the
warmer conditions to early next week. The other factor that will
need to be monitored is the potential for tropical moisture sourced
from a possible disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge axis
may shift far enough to the east late in the weekend to allow for
this moisture to drift northward. So while temperatures are likely
to be above normal, the details of any particular heat risk on any
particular day may have to wait until these details become more
clear. Given the current confidence of the trough at least passing
near the region, will continue the mention of low PoPs Thursday
night into Friday. At this time, severe weather is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cu will be present along with high clouds today. Wind gusts
around 20 knots will be possible at times this afternoon into
the early evening hours. VFR clouds are expected overnight as a
disturbance works through. There will also be the potential for
MVFR clouds during the day on Monday at some of the area TAF
sites. There is not a lot of moisture and therefore went with
dry conditions at the TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday and Monday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...