Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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236 FXUS63 KIWX 141817 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 217 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Warm and dry conditions will persist through next week. -Drought conditions will likely continue to expand and worsen. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The remnants of Francine continue to get sheared out over the Gulf States today into early next week. Meanwhile, an upper ridge across the Northeast continues to grip the area with dry weather. The ridge shifts eastward in the first portion of next week and provides upper divergence to left over vorticity offshore of the Mid Atlantic States allowing a chance for tropical cyclone formation. Both the GFS and the ECMWF deepen the system and carry it inland, GFS being the earlier model to do it. There`s some question how far westward it can come, with the GFS also carrying its energy farther westward than the ECMWF. With the antecedent dry air around, am still skeptical of getting any rain across the area. The ECMWF finally brings in a better low level theta-e airmass by Friday and this weekend, but even then, instability is still lacking, which also likely cuts into rainfall chances. As such, am still most confident in holding onto null PoPs through the forecast period that even the NBM gives me. There are signs that the mid teens Celsius 850 mb temperatures dip a couple degrees lower into the low teens for Tuesday through Thursday meaning the mid to upper 80 high temperatures will become more low to mid 80s highs during the that timeframe before creeping warmer again for the later week. Am still noting the 25 percent MinRH values from Sunday through Tuesday, but it still looks like the weaker, less than 20 mph average winds, and the still relatively moist fuels (greater than 10 percent) keep us out of red flag criteria during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A strong upper ridge will continue to promote VFR/dry conditions and little in the way of cloud cover through the period. Winds will generally remain out of the southeast near 8 knots otherwise. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Steinwedel