Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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231 FXUS63 KIWX 090728 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 328 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool Monday with highs near 70, much warmer by Thursday with highs approaching 90. - Becoming hot and humid late this coming weekend. - Mainly dry this upcoming week; chances for storms Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers have moved east out of the forecast area. Chilly air behind a weak upper level system and associated cold front will spread south out of Canada to start the work week. 850 mb temperatures Monday may drop all of the way down to +3C per GFS. The latest model guidance favors lows well down into the 40s by Tuesday morning. Return flow around a large surface high will begin Tuesday and eventually allow highs to recover well into the 80s Thursday. For later this upcoming week, the challenges include timing of a (weak) cold front and subsequent chances for showers & storms. In the broader picture, the best window for activity should be open from early Thursday into Friday. Max CAPE values per GFS range from 1000 J/Kg to 2000 J/Kg. Given modest CAPE, bulk shear and precipitable water values, these environment factors favor gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with unorganized storms. However, if an upstream convective develops into a MCS and moves into the area, stronger winds would be favored. Confidence is low for storms on Friday given the likelihood the front will be south of the area and best chances for storms will likely be in the higher theta E in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise, the upcoming weekend should be dry. GFS and ECMWF 850 mb temperatures near 20C favor highs near 90 Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Low confidence with cigs through daybreak as ceilings generally bouncing around between IFR and low VFR across northern IN immediately behind a cold front. Dry advection in this environment should eventually allow for all VFR after daybreak with deeper diurnal mixing supporting wnw gusts up to near 25 knots late morning and afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Steinwedel