Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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878 FXUS63 KIWX 071837 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 237 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers Saturday afternoon and evening may be the only chance of measurable rainfall the next 7 days. - Below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday, coldest Monday. - Transition to above normal temperatures (80s and maybe a few 90s) with heat indices possibly becoming a concern for the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mixing of slightly higher winds is underway over much of the area with gusts in the 25 to locally 35 mph range. As you get closer to the lake, the marine layer has kept mixing in check with gusts and waves in the nearshore waters lower than forecasted. Any gusts will quickly diminish this evening. The upper level low located north of Lake Huron, will slowly edge east to Maine by 18Z Sat. While the impacts from this feature will lessen over the next 24 hours, 2 weak short waves will move towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sat/Sat night bringing what may be the best chance for precipitation over the next week. The first, more subtle wave was moving across Wyoming and will track into Nebraska and then ESE into central/southern IL by 12Z Sat. Another closed upper parked north of Montana will send a weak trough south with an upper level speed max causing rapidly deepening as it tracks to northern Ontario by 06Z Sun. While the best energy remains north, a disturbance will enter the area during the afternoon and evening hours bringing a chance for showers. Moisture will be rather limited and although some modest southerly flow in the low levels tries to setup deeper moisture remains well south of the area and what little advection may occur with the first wave moving out of Nebraska will remain south of us, feeding remnants of a MCS expected to take shape later today/tonight across portions of NE and KS. As a result, no more than chc pops are warranted. The deepening of the upper low over eastern Canada will allow for high pressure at the surface to build into the region with dry and cool conditions expected, most noticeable on Monday as the strongest wave drops south across the western Lakes. A few showers can`t be ruled out with this feature, but moisture will be so sparse will be hard for them to generate much in the way of QPF. Upper level ridge axis quickly builds in mid week with temperatures climbing back towards normal in the upper 70s. One more trough will drop into the northern Great lakes Thursday night into Friday with the main impacts to us being holding temps near to maybe a touch above normal (around 80 to low 80s) and a small (yet barely mentionable shot for a few showers. Pattern thereafter suggests the heat dome that will be settled over the SW states will try to edge northeast towards the region over the weekend into next week. Med range models varying somewhat on timing of 20 degree C or higher 850 temps somewhere in the Sunday to Monday time frame. Regardless, temperatures should remain in the 80s for highs with humidity values slowly creeping up. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Breezy afternoon continues with sustained winds of 15-20kt and gusts 25-30kt out of the west-northwest. SCT/BKN CU field at or above 6k ft AGL with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds relax after 0Z. Some showers will be possible across N and NW Indiana / S Michigan by late morning Saturday with rain chances spreading southeast through the day. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Norman