Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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442 FXUS63 KIWX 120524 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 124 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heating up in the coming days; highs in the mid 80s Wednesday, then upper 80s to low 90s Thursday. - The next chance for rain and storms arrives 4 to 10 PM EDT Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. - Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices upwards of 100 to 105 degrees starting on Father`s Day through at least the middle of next week! Can`t rule out a few low chances (20% or less) for showers and storms but this timeframe looks mainly dry. && .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weak lead short wave across southern Lake MI vicinity will allow for mid level cloud deck to spread eastward this evening. A band of radar returns is noted in association with this feature, but sub-cloud layer is quite dry and would think at most, a few sprinkles are possible across the west-northwest over next few hours. Water vapor imagery does depict a stronger upper level short wave across southern Wisconsin that will shift across the southern Great Lakes overnight. Some better moistening in 850mb-800mb layer should occur after 06Z tonight across the west, which could be enough weak elevated instability for a few showers overnight across the far west. Confidence in isolated showers is low however, as less than optimal mid level lapse rates may not allow much elevated instability to be realized. May add just some slight chance PoPs overnight across the west, but otherwise no major changes to previous forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Hope you enjoyed the cool mornings and seasonable daytime temperatures the past few days! We are unlikely to experience any more cooler than normal days in the upcoming weeks as summer takes hold! With several dry days, ample mixing today has led to temperatures climbing 30 to 35 above where they were in the low to mid 40s this morning for lows! Northerly winds have kept seasonable temperatures around today, but this will not be in the case for the rest of the week. Winds will shift on Wednesday to become southwesterly, and ample WAA will result in highs that will be in the mid 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure builds across the Ohio River Valley that will keep dry conditions around until later in the day Thursday. The main focus of the week aside from the approaching heat will be the return of rain and storms chances Thursday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible Thursday, with SPC putting the north and west portions of our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Highs near 90 degrees and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will yield an increasingly unstable environment during the day Thursday. As an area of low pressure lifts northward through Ontario, the attendant cold front will sweep southeast through our area Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible out ahead of the front; a few storms may be strong to severe. Long range and mid range model guidance is starting to come into agreement, however, there are still some discontinuities in timing and the amount of forcing/instability present; GFS and NAM soundings depict MLCAPE of ~1000 J/kg by Thursday afternoon with around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear orthogonal to the southeastward moving frontal boundary. In addition, GFS soundings show DCAPE of ~800 J/kg, which would promote a favorable environment for isolated damaging wind gusts to occur. The best timeframe for a few severe storms will be from 4-10 PM EDT Thursday. Storms should die off as diurnal heating is lost Thursday evening. We will continue to monitor this chance for severe weather so check back for updates in the coming days! Hot and humid weather is on its way! Surface high pressure and impressive upper level ridging will build across much of the eastern CONUS this weekend, setting the stage for a `heat dome` to set up. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices pushing 100 to 105 degrees starting on Father`s Day through at least the middle of next week! Overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s will offer little to no relief from the heat. This is the typical summertime "Ring of Fire" pattern for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions where any clusters of storms that do develop tend to ride around the periphery of the heat dome. For now, the Sunday to next Wednesday timeframe appears mainly dry, with only a few low chances (20% or less) for rain/storms). For those who enjoy the hot, humid conditions of summer, you won`t have to wait too much longer! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 117 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 An upper level disturbance moving through central/southern WI may bring a few widely scattered rain showers over the area overnight but did exclude mention of showers in the TAF as confidence and coverage are very low. Ridging moving eastward out of the area with zonal flow aloft into the region with southerly winds at the surface with a few gusts in the upper teens possible through 00z Thur. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Andersen